Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030823
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NM NWD TO CENTRAL CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. STRONG 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+16C/ ANCHORED
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BUILD NWD THIS PERIOD INTO THE
   NRN ROCKIES. CONTINUATION OF NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
   AND EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF PLUME DOMINANT
   WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PLUME BEHAVIOR IS ACROSS
   ERN AZ/SRN UT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHTS REACH 550-500MB WITH
   SURFACE RH DOWN TO 5 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
   WEAK LARGE-SCALE FLOW IN VICINITY OF THE RIDGE...WITH GENERALLY
   LIGHT NEAR-SURFACE WINDS DRIVEN BY LOCAL MOUNTAIN-VALLEY
   CIRCULATIONS...WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE ISSUANCE.  
   
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF THE
   SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND FRONT RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
   AXIS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
   TODAY FROM CENTRAL NM NWD INTO CENTRAL CO. OTHER MORE ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NERN ORE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ID INTO
   WRN MT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL NM NWD INTO CENTRAL CO AND
   EWD TO THE FRONT RANGE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED STRONG
   WINDS WITH T-STORMS
   
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
   ANTICIPATED ALONG/NEAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND CO FRONT RANGE
   BEGINNING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WWD MOISTURE SURGE
   ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH
   CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
   WITH THIS MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
   RESULT IN A N-S AXIS OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NM NWD INTO
   CENTRAL CO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
   VIRGA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
   LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. CELLS WILL TRACK
   GENERALLY ESEWD AT 15-20 MPH. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
   WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. 
   
   DRY FUELS AND RECENT EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATINGS SUGGEST A HIGH
   IGNITION POTENTIAL WITH LIGHTNING ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LESS ACROSS WRN NM NWD INTO
   WRN CO...HOWEVER...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WEST OF CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ...NERN ORE...CENTRAL ID...WRN/SWRN MT...NWRN WY...
   
   GOES-10 IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN CA
   COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVER THE BUILDING
   RIDGE AND AID IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NERN ORE INTO SWRN MT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   SHOWN IN ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS / MUCAPE 100-500 J/KG / COMBINED
   WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
    
   FUEL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT OF LIGHTNING INDUCED
   WILDFIRES IS LOW TO MODERATE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONITORED
   NEAR ANY AREAS OF LOCALLY DRIER FUEL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...THREAT
   IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A LARGE-SCALE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/03/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030824
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
   REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NWD ACROSS WRN WY/WRN
   MT. GRADIENT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN VICINITY OF THIS
   FEATURE...MITIGATING LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...AND EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE LOCAL POTENTIAL OF
   PLUME DOMINANT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
   WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS
   WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
   MT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FUEL CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT A
   SIGNIFICANT THREAT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. 
   
   EAST OF THE ROCKY MTNS...LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/03/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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