Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200740
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR NERN PACIFIC THIS
   PERIOD WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
   SEA WNWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FAR SWRN TX. TO THE EAST OF
   THE BLOCKING RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT MOVING RAPIDLY
   SSEWD ACROSS ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
   ACCELERATE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN WA ESEWD INTO SWRN WY BY 21/12Z. A
   BAND OF 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY
   OF THIS ELONGATED TROUGH...FROM NRN UT EWD ACROSS SRN WY.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...+17C 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES AREA. MODEST INCREASE IN WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REDUCE
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ISOLATED THREAT
   OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM SRN NM NWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   MTS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF
   UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS ERN ID/NRN UT/SRN WY/NWRN CO. FUEL CONDITIONS
   SUGGEST ONLY LOW TO MODERATE LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY IN THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES AREA.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
   MODEST INCREASE IN WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ACROSS
   NRN AZ/SRN UT/NWRN NM/SWRN CO AROUND MAX HEATING TIME. FIRE DANGER
   CLASS SHOULD REMAIN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...WRN
   NM...SWRN CO...AND THE SRN GREAT BASIN REGION WITH NO PRECIPITATION
   EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
   AXIS OF EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES...AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MAX
   HEATING...WILL EXTEND FROM SRN NV EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT OTHER
   FACTORS INCLUDING DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND EXTREMELY LOW RH
   SUGGEST SOME WORSENING OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/20/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200743
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
   SWRN WY AT 21/12Z WILL TRACK EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION BY
   MONDAY EVENING. A DRY...WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN
   EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SWD ACROSS AZ/NM...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
   5-15 PERCENT. MODEST MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS WLY TO WSWLY
   SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING
   MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PRECLUDE
   CRITICAL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. 
   
   LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRACK...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   FROM FAR ERN NV INTO CENTRAL CO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM FAR SERN AZ EWD
   INTO S-CENTRAL NM WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/20/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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