Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070906
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0406 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND SRN ID...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   GREAT BASIN INTO THE MTNS OF NRN UT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   NM MTNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
   ESEWD INTO FAR N-CENTRAL MT AND THE ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY
   08/12Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH BELT OF 50-60KT 500MB
   FLOW ACROSS SRN ID INTO WRN WY DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.
   
   MEANWHILE...LARGE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
   ACROSS SRN ID/NRN NV/NRN UT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE
   REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - WRN/NRN WV...NRN UT...AND SRN
   ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY LOW RH VALUES / MODERATE WINDS / AREAS OF
   DRY FUELS
   
   WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
   AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BY THIS
   AFTERNOON. LOW ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FROM WRN NV
   ENEWD INTO NRN UT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20
   PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
   COOLER ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY /LOW TO MID 80S/...AND FUELS
   GENERALLY NOT AS DRY AS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN REGION.
   HOWEVER...GRADIENT WINDS ARE STRONGER AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   WIDESPREAD WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY REDUCE SURFACE WINDS AFTER
   SUNSET...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE CONTINUED MODERATE WLY
   WINDS WILL LIMIT RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN SIERRA NEVADA ENEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
   
   AN AXIS OF SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA MTNS ENEWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL NV INTO N-CENTRAL UT. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL CAPE /
   100-300 J/KG /OWING TO LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. DRY TSTMS WILL
   POSE A THREAT OF LIGHTNING INDUCED WILDFIRE STARTS DUE TO DRY
   FUELS...AND LOCALLY STRONG/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH DRY
   MICROBURSTS.
   
   COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE
   EARLY EVENING PERIOD WITH MODEST INCREASE IN WLY FLOW SUGGESTING EWD
   CELL MOTIONS AT 15-20 MPH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - CENTRAL NM MTNS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
   
   A SEPARATE REGION OF SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS OF NM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING HOURS TODAY. DESPITE PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE...MINIMAL
   SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES
   WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD
   YIELD HIGH-BASED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/07/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 070941
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0441 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL - FAR NRN
   AZ AND MUCH OF UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   QUASI-STATIONARY IN VICINITY OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN ENEWD ACROSS
   N-CENTRAL WY. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WITH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING MODERATELY
   STRONG IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM SRN ID ENEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS.
   MEANWHILE...700MB THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR +18C ACROSS SERN CO/NERN NM BY
   09/00Z. WEST OF THE RIDGE CENTER...DEVELOPING WEAK SLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW COMPONENT SHOULD RESULT IN NWD MIGRATION OF SUBTROPICAL
   MOISTURE ACROSS AZ INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR NRN AZ AND CENTRAL/SRN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS...EXISTING DRY FUELS
   
   ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPERIMENTAL SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
   BOTH INDICATE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NRN AZ AND
   MUCH OF UT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NRN FRINGE OF MID-LEVEL
   SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
   REGION...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...PREDOMINATELY DRY IN NATURE...WITH THREAT OF NEW
   WILDFIRE STARTS AND LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DRY
   MICROBURSTS. HIGHER PW VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ SUGGEST ANY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   RAINFALL.
   
   ADDITIONAL DATA WILL LIKELY ALLOW DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT AREA TO BE
   FURTHER REFINED IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/07/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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