Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080808
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   THIS PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NRN MT THIS MORNING
   IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND CURVE NEWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
   IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AXIS DOWNSTREAM. ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL WY AND INTO THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE
   SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO FAR SWRN WY.
   
   ACROSS THE SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REMAINS
   FAIRLY WEAK. CENTER OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IS
   PROGGED BY THE ETA TO SHIFT EWD SLIGHTLY...INTO SERN CO/NERN NM.
   THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN AZ...WITH THE
   FIRST WEAK SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NWD INTO
   SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SURFACE DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LARGE. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR LOCAL PLUME
   DOMINANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION IN DAYTIME ENVIRONMENTS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE WLY TO SWLY AT 10-15 MPH AND HIGHEST DURING PEAK
   HEATING HOURS / LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING /.
   
   ...SRN SIERRA NEVADA/GREAT BASIN/SWRN WY/NWRN CO...
   
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY TODAY BASED ON LATEST
   GUIDANCE...OWING TO LIMITED CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN
   FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...A NARROW AXIS OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED FROM THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA MTNS
   ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL NV...NRN UT...SWRN WY..AND NWRN CO.
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...TO SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURSTS. DRY
   LIGHTNING THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS. DRY FUEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT
   OF LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/08/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080811
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   AND SRN WY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT NWD INTO ORE/ID/MT BY
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO NWD BUILDING 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE FROM NM NWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN WY DURING THE PERIOD.
   THESE FACTORS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO ID/WRN MT AND INTERIOR
   WA/ORE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-10F WARMER THAN THOSE
   EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. LARGE-SCALE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BELOW 20
   MPH SHOULD PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   IN THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN CONUS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY
   ADVECT NWD FROM AZ INTO THE ERN/SRN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING AN
   INCREASED THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM AZ NWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONCENTRATED AREAS OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/08/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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