Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250803
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE PAST 24HRS...SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH HAS PREVAILED FROM
   THE DESERTS OF SRN CA NWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN OF NERN ORE AND SERN WA. LOWER ELEVATION HIGH
   TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED 100F IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ON
   SATURDAY...WITH RH MINIMUMS BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT. WEAK UPPER LOW
   OVER NERN CA...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE SCALE RIDGE...PROVIDED ASCENT
   FOR SCATTERED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ORE AND
   FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   
   FOR SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS ZONAL
   FLOW INCREASES BEHIND LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
   BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING. WSWLY 500MB FLOW OF 25-30 KT WILL
   PREVAIL ACROSS WA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CHANGES ALOFT
   WILL RESULT IN SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO FAR ERN
   ORE/WA BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
   WILL LEAD TO A MARINE PUSH ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES THIS
   PERIOD WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. 
   
   ELSEWHERE...UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
   FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASSOCIATED
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BECOME STATIONARY
   IN THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN AS COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS MODIFIES THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...
   
   NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
   THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH HIGHS 100-105F. RH MINIMUMS WILL BE SIMILAR
   TO YESTERDAY FROM CENTRAL ORE NNEWD ACROSS ERN WA...WITH READINGS
   10-15 PERCENT. LARGE-SCALE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
   YESTERDAY...GENERALLY WLY TO SWLY AT 10-15 MPH AROUND PEAK HEATING.
   HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
   ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES ASSOCIATED WITH MARINE PUSH
   THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS MAY POSE A LOCAL FIRE WEATHER
   HAZARD...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH ADVECTION OF MARINE
   AIR INLAND.  
   
   SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS NERN CA WILL PROPAGATE NEWD INTO SWRN
   ID BY 26/00Z. AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
   CENTRAL ORE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ID. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AND
   GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
   HAZARD...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
   PERIOD WHEN T-STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH
   VALUES LOWEST. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES OF 0.7-0.8" AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES FROM CENTRAL ORE EWD
   ACROSS SRN ID THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIKELY TOO HIGH TO
   SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING THREAT.  
   
   ...WRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR CA...
   
   CORE OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+16C/ WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
   CENTRAL NV THIS PERIOD. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING/DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
   RATES FROM SFC UP THROUGH 600-550MB LEVEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   SURFACE HIGHS 100-107F WOULD SUPPORT PLUME DOMINANT FIRE POTENTIAL
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PREVAILING LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS
   WEAK...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOCAL
   MOUNTAIN-VALLEY CIRCULATIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS /LESS THAN 15
   MPH/.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/25/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250804
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
   WA/ORE EAST OF CASCADE MTNS WITH HIGHS 10F COOLER THAN THOSE
   EXPECTED SUNDAY /LOW TO MID 90S...DOWN FROM 100-105F/. THIS DECREASE
   IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK
   DOWN AND SHIFT SEWD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   MOVE ACROSS SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FROM NRN WA INTO NWRN MT DURING
   THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. CORE OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
   ACROSS SRN NV...WITH AXIS RUNNING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT BRINGING
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /HIGHS IN THE 90S/ AND CORRESPONDINGLY LOW
   RH VALUES /MINIMUMS 10-15 PERCENT CENTRAL/ERN MT AND ERN WY/. IT
   APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT /WLY TO SWLY AT 10-15
   MPH/ EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
   
   ...CENTRAL MT...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LEADING EDGE OF
   MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL PVA ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF WRN/W-CENTRAL
   MT WILL TRACK EWD INTO DRY...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR LATE
   MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...GIVEN INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
   MARGINAL CAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG PER 25/00Z ETA RUN. DEPENDING
   ON EXPECTED T-STORM COVERAGE...AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA MAY BE NECESSARY IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/25/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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