Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 110737
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE
SRN CA DESERTS NWD TO WA. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS LIKELY FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO
NM. BETWEEN WRN RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH...ENHANCED 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM SWRN MT SEWD THROUGH
CO. MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGION WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
...SWRN WY/WRN CO/FAR NERN UT...
ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NWLY 15-20 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS AS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM ALOFT.
ANTICIPATED WINDS COMBINED WITH RH MINIMUMS BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER HAZARD FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. FIRE DANGER CLASS RATINGS WERE IN THE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS IN
MOST SECTIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK AREA.
..BANACOS.. 08/11/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 110736
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AT 12/12Z WILL REINFORCE MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM AZ NNWWD TO ERN WA. PATTERN REMAINS
UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR AUGUST.
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN RIDGE...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW
15 PERCENT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...INTERIOR VALLEYS OF
CA NWD INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN...THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND MUCH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT WINDS...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WILL MITIGATE LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER IMPACT.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW TO VERY LOW RH
VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PLUME DOMINANT FIRE POTENTIAL IN HEAVIER
FUEL LOADINGS.
NWLY 500MB FLOW INCREASES EWD ACROSS CO...WITH 25-40KT WINDS LIKELY
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS MAY REACH 15-20
MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN CO FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...HOWEVER...WIND POTENTIAL IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
..BANACOS.. 08/11/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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