Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150736
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS
RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE GREAT BASIN
AND SWRN STATES. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE N WITHIN A
WARM AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE OHIO AND MS RIVER VALLEYS...WITH LOW RH VALUES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH.
...WRN CO / ERN UT...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL ALLOW MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. IT WILL BE VERY
WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F AND RH LEVELS NEAR 15
PERCENT. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EVAPORATION
AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS SPEEDS ALOFT...A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO
EXIST ALONG WITH DRY FUELS...BUT WIND SPEEDS AWAY FROM STORMS WILL
BE LIGHT.
...SERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH HEATING WILL CAUSE RH VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NE. KBDI VALUES INTO THE
500-600 RANGE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RH VALUES SUGGEST INCREASED
THREAT OF FIRE STARTS.
...ERN MT AND WY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO SERN WY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N AT AROUND 15
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
PERCENT.
..JEWELL.. 08/15/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150846
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NERN U.S. WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD WITHIN
IT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER S...IT
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LOW RH VALUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...CENTRAL TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
KBDI VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM
AND DRY WEATHER AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY AFTERNOON...MIN RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 MPH OUT OF THE E. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE AN UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
DEVELOP...WITH DEEP MIXED LAYERS RANGING FROM 5000-7500 FEET AGL.
SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO LOCALLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE THREAT HOWEVER.
...WRN CO INTO SRN WY AND NERN UT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 0.6 TO 0.75 IN. WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THUS MAXIMIZE PRECIP
POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LIGHT THAT MAY BE. SURFACE RH VALUES WILL BE
ONLY MARGINALLY LOW...FROM 20-30 PERCENT. THUS...MOSTLY WET STORMS
ARE EXPECTED...BUT SPORADIC DRY STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL.. 08/15/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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