Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150736
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER
   THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER THIS
   RIDGE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ABOUT THE GREAT BASIN
   AND SWRN STATES.  FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF
   CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE N WITHIN A
   WARM AND DRY AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE OVER
   THE OHIO AND MS RIVER VALLEYS...WITH LOW RH VALUES INTO THE DEEP
   SOUTH.
   
   ...WRN CO / ERN UT...
   MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL ALLOW MOSTLY
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN.  IT WILL BE VERY
   WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F AND RH LEVELS NEAR 15
   PERCENT.  THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EVAPORATION
   AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE INCREASE
   IN MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS SPEEDS ALOFT...A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO
   EXIST ALONG WITH DRY FUELS...BUT WIND SPEEDS AWAY FROM STORMS WILL
   BE LIGHT.
   
   ...SERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH HEATING WILL CAUSE RH VALUES
   TO DROP INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE MOST PLACES.  WINDS WILL BE
   FAIRLY LIGHT FROM 5-10 MPH OUT OF THE NE.  KBDI VALUES INTO THE
   500-600 RANGE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RH VALUES SUGGEST INCREASED
   THREAT OF FIRE STARTS.
   
   ...ERN MT AND WY...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OUT OF CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND
   WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO SERN WY BY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON.  WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE N AT AROUND 15
   MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.  IT WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
   DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/15/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150846
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
   SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE NERN U.S. WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD WITHIN
   IT.  ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
   THUNDERSTORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  FARTHER S...IT
   WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LOW RH VALUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
   
   ...CENTRAL TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   KBDI VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY DUE TO PERSISTENT WARM
   AND DRY WEATHER AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE.  BY AFTERNOON...MIN RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S PERCENT. 
   WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER 10 MPH OUT OF THE E.  STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE AN UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO
   DEVELOP...WITH DEEP MIXED LAYERS RANGING FROM 5000-7500 FEET AGL.
   
   SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE PRECIPITATION
   OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO LOCALLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   MAY EXIST IN THESE AREAS.  LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE THREAT HOWEVER.
   
   
   ...WRN CO INTO SRN WY AND NERN UT...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 0.6 TO 0.75 IN. WEAK WIND FIELDS
   ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THUS MAXIMIZE PRECIP
   POTENTIAL...HOWEVER LIGHT THAT MAY BE. SURFACE RH VALUES WILL BE
   ONLY MARGINALLY LOW...FROM 20-30 PERCENT.  THUS...MOSTLY WET STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED...BUT SPORADIC DRY STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/15/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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