Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290632
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER ND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN IN MODEL
   FORECASTS TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO UPWIND 80-90KT 250MB JET
   STREAK...ANALYZED AT 29/00Z ACROSS MT NWWD INTO SRN BRITISH
   COLUMBIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT...NOW ALONG THE
   MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...WILL SWEEP ESEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
   WRN MN BY 30/00Z. COMBINATION OF MODERATE SURFACE WINDS AND LOW
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH VALUES IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL
   PROVIDE FOR SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON. 
   
   IN THE WEST...500MB RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGING AT 700MB
   WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WWD TO SRN CA. SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 100F ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO RH MINIMUMS AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...WEAK TOPOGRAPHICALLY FORCED NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
   MITIGATE LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MIXING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 12-15 KFT THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN...AZ...AND INTERIOR CA MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO LOCAL PLUME DOMINANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN LOCALLY
   HEAVY FUEL LOADINGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ...ND AND NRN SD...
   
   COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY WIND PROFILES AND STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL
   DRYING FOLLOWING TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S...RH MINIMUMS BETWEEN 25-30
   PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY
   19-00Z. NWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-25 MPH DURING THIS
   TIME FRAME...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. 
   
   LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS ND
   EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
   ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   BRACKETING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/29/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290631
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...ETA AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN LIFTING
   NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   GREAT LAKES REGION AT 30/12Z...NEWD INTO NERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FOUR CORNERS 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE TO EXPAND NEWD ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING
   TREND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION /HIGH
   TEMPERATURES 5-10F WARMER/. WEAK LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
   RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS... GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS REGION.
   
   LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BROAD 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
   STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MODERATELY STRONG 30-35KT WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WA/ORE COAST EWD OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA. WIDESPREAD RH MINIMUMS BELOW
   20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM MT/WY/CO WWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   INTO CA/INTERIOR ORE...AND SWD INTO AZ AND NWRN NM. PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY TOO WEAK TO
   WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THESES AREAS. 
   
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NM IN
   VICINITY OF REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY/DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
   ID AND WRN/CENTRAL MT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/29/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home