Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010757
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA...THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CRITICAL LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
   FROM THE NRN SIERRAS NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GREAT BASIN INTO
   SWRN/S-CENTRAL MT. POTENT UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF VANCOUVER IS. EARLY
   THIS MORNING WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THIS PERIOD.
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED AT 50-60KT ACROSS ORE/NRN CA/NWRN NV THIS
   EVENING AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ONSHORE AND HEIGHT GRADIENT
   INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT WILL SLIDE SEWD AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM A DEVELOPING
   SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MT SWWD TO NEAR BOISE ID AND WSWWD ALONG
   THR ORE/CA BORDER AT 02/00Z. CORRIDOR OF DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY
   WINDS AND VERY DRY...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL
   RESULT IN AXIS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
   FRONT...HOWEVER MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO BE IN MORE
   MOIST AND STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. 
   
   MUCH LOWER RH VALUES ACROSS ND WILL BE REALIZED TODAY AS DEVELOPING
   LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS JUXTAPOSED WITH 700MB THERMAL
   RIDGE AXIS RESULTS IN WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
   DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD BRING A SEPARATE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN CA...SERN ORE...NRN NV...FAR
   NWRN UT...SRN/ERN ID...NWRN WY...AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / VERY ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS
   
   SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN A
   SW-NE BAND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PRESENCE OF 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING PAST FEW DAYS HAS
   RESULTED IN A PRE-EXISTING VERY DRY AIR MASS WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE A
   STRONG INCREASE IN WIND BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED HOT
   TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE /MID 80S TO MID 90S AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW RH MINIMUMS BETWEEN 10-15
   PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN MANY AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WLY/WNWLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES TO ERN
   MT/CENTRAL WY AND ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD. 
   
   MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE A FEW FAST
   MOVING...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CRITICAL RISK AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING OR DRY
   MICROBURST ACTIVITY. ANTICIPATED ISOLATED NATURE OF DRY LIGHTNING
   THREAT WILL PRECLUDE SEPARATE HIGHLIGHTS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL/WRN NORTH AND SOUTH
   DAKOTA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / HOT
   TEMPERATURES
   
   PRESSURE FALLS/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR ERN MT/ERN WY WILL
   YIELD AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN
   DAKOTAS DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE. THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN
   ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO ADVECT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES
   /UPPER 80S AND 90S/ ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS
   /10-15F ABOVE NORMAL/...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW RH VALUES
   BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/01/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010855
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 AM CDT WED SEP 01 2004
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN GREAT BASIN...NRN AZ...AND
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ON THURSDAY...ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN
   THE WRN CONUS. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW. ETA AND GFS
   ARE CONSISTENT IN 500MB DEPICTION...INDICATING SOME FURTHER DIGGING
   OF THE SYSTEM AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM ORE AT 03/00Z INTO
   CENTRAL NV BY 03/12Z. THIS WILL ESTABLISH TWO PRIMARY THREAT AREAS.
   THE FIRST WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN SD SWWD ACROSS SWRN WY AND ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRENGTHING SWLY
   SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL POSE
   A FIRE WEATHER HAZARD FOR THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT BASIN NEWD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...THE PASSAGE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   SHOULD BRING A MORE LOCALIZED THREAT OF STRONG NLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
   THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE MT. SHASTA REGION OF NRN
   CA INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN NV...CENTRAL/WRN
   UT...NRN AZ...NWRN CO...AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES
   
   SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW SEWD MOVING
   COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN NEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES. INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING WITH STRENGTHENING WIND
   FIELDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH VALUES...GENERALLY BETWEEN
   10-15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
   SRN UT/WRN CO. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY
   IN AREAS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. 
   
   SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM E-CENTRAL NV ENEWD
   ACROSS UT INTO NWRN CO/SWRN WY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP IN THE DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
   ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DRY MICROBURSTS AND/OR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES. EXTENT OF TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME
   AND WILL PRECLUDE SEPARATE DRY LIGHTNING RISK AREA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DEVELOPING MODERATE NLY WINDS LATE / POOR RH
   RECOVERY
   
   NLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MT SHASTA
   REGION INTO THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
   EVENING. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE 1KM FLOW TO AROUND 35 MPH AT
   RBL AND RDD BY 03/05Z. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE
   DRYING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY
   AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
   THE LAST 6-9 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/01/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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