Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020743
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN NV AND NWRN AZ...MUCH OF UT
   AND WRN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MTNS OF SRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN
   U.S...BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN WARM AND DRY. 
   BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN ND...SWWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  THE
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS DUE TO GUSTY AND SHIFTING
   WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NV AND NWRN AZ...MUCH OF UT
   AND WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NWLY / LOW RH /
   DRY FUELS / ISOLATED T-STORMS
   
   A PACIFIC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NWRN STATES TODAY...CAUSING A
   COLD FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SWD. BY AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT
   WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WY INTO NRN UT AND CENTRAL NV.  THE AIR MASS
   AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY...WITH RH LEVELS
   DROPPING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
   THE 80S.  WIND FIELDS IN THE WARM AIR WILL BE OUT OF THE SW...WITH
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COMMON.  A MDT
   TO HIGH HAINES INDEX WILL EXIST AS WELL.
   
   THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD OVERNIGHT...CAUSING STRONG SWLY
   WINDS TO SHIFT TO NWLY AT 20-25 MPH.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   ALSO OCCUR NEAR THIS FRONT.  LOW RH IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND LOW
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.60 INCH SUGGEST STRONG AND GUSTY
   WINDS NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: INCREASING N WINDS / LOW RH
   
   WRN EDGE OF COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NRN CA TODAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
   BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CONTRAST WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE VALLEYS TO
   PRODUCE NLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.  DURING THE DAYTIME...NLY WINDS OF
   10-15 MPH WILL OCCUR.  IT WILL BE VERY DRY WITH MIN RH LEVELS NEAR
   10 PERCENT.
   
   OVERNIGHT...DRAINAGE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...AND WILL COMBINE WITH VERTICAL MIXING OF DRY AIR TO KEEP
   RH LEVELS LOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - MTNS OF SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WLY WINDS / VERY LOW RH AND HOT
   TEMPERATURES
   
   AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIPS SWD...SURFACE PRESSURE WILL FALL
   OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT CREATED WILL CAUSE STRONG WLY WINDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
   IN PASSES AND CANYONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL RANGE OF SRN CA.
   
   BY AFTERNOON...WLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 AND 30
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IT WILL BE VERY HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
   EXCESS OF 100 AND RH LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. 
   RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS...WITH WINDS CONTINUING
   OVERNIGHT BUT TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 4 - CENTRAL AND WRN SD INCLUDING THE
   BLACK HILLS REGION / SRN ND...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SHIFTING WINDS WITH COLD FRONT / LOW RH
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NERN WY
   TODAY...CAUSING SLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO NWLY.  AHEAD OF THIS
   FRONT...IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. 
   RH LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT.  SLY WINDS WILL BE
   SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   
   THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS REGION BY MIDDAY...AND
   WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NWLY AT 15-20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/02/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020916
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0416 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN AZ...SRN UT...WRN
   CO...EXTREME NWRN NM AND...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME ERN UT...WRN CO FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
   SRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS...WHILE COOLER
   NWLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND IT. DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
   ACROSS UT AND CO. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND DRY OVER SRN
   CA...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY.  STRONG NLY
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER FOR NRN CA...WITH LOW RH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NWRN AZ...SRN UT...WRN
   CO...EXTREME NWRN NM AND...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH
   
   A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGHOUT THE
   PERIOD...AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS NWRN CO TO SRN UT AND SRN NV BY
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL MIX TO
   THE SURFACE WITH SUSTAINED SWLY SPEEDS FROM 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS IN
   EXCESS OF 30 MPH.  RH LEVELS WILL BE LOW FROM 10-15 PERCENT IN
   GENERAL. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD
   OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER CO...WHILE THE WRN PART OF THE FRONT
   BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN NV AND ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - EXTREME ERN UT...WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT...AS COOLING TAKES PLACE ALOFT ATOP WARMING AT THE SURFACE. 
   THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...BOTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MTNS.  FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL
   INCLUDE SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL CAUSE UPSLOPE
   FORCING.  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 0.50 INCH AND THUS WEAK
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL WITH STORMS AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT. RH LEVELS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH
   INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO FAR NRN UT/CO.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 3 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG NELY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES
   
   HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N AND STRONG NLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG NLY AND NELY SFC WINDS TO
   DEVELOP.  DURING THE DAYTIME...SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 15-20 MPH APPEAR
   LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WIND
   FIELDS WILL BECOME MORE ELY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EWD INTO
   ID AND MT.  THIS WILL CAUSE LOW RH VALUES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
   STRONG WINDS IN PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG WITH POOR RH RECOVERY.
   
   ...MTNS OF SRN CA...
   WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON THURSDAY...DUE TO WEAKENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT.  HOWEVER...AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY OUT OF THE WEST...WITH STRONGER GUSTS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH
   TERRAIN OF THE SRN COASTAL RANGE. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   REMAIN STEEP HOWEVER...SUGGESTING STRONG TURBULENCE DURING PEAK
   HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/02/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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