Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270502
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS PROVIDING
   FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOR NEAR TO ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS/LOW RH READINGS IN MUCH
   OF THE WEST. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NM ACROSS TX
   ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. AN UPPER TROUGH
   WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST ENHANCING THE ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING
   COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND. WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING THE FIRE
   DANGER...BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...SUSTAINED ENELY WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH
   ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE DRY AIR FILTERING IN THE
   REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE 30S...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
   5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WILL PRECLUDE MIN RH READINGS
   FROM GETTING BELOW 35 PERCENT.
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU SWD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...
   MIN RH READINGS WILL BE LOW /25-30 PERCENT/ AS A COMBINATION OF DRY
   AIR FILTERING SWD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID RIVER
   VALLEY AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S EXIST OVER THE REGION. 
   DESPITE A RECENT DRY SPELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
   REGION INTO ERN OK...SUSTAINED NNELY WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK /AOB 15 MPH/ PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...INTERIOR SRN/CENTRAL CA INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
   ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER INTERIOR SRN CA...AND STRENGTHENING
   LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN NV WILL FAVOR INCREASING SWLY WINDS OVER THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER
   MUCH OF THE REGION...AS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...SUSTAINED
   WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH DURING THE PERIOD OF
   LOWEST RH READINGS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/27/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270534
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS UPPER
   TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST. SWLY
   WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LEAD TO
   INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THIS REGION. LIFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER
   EAST OVER THE WASATCH MTNS/FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED
   NATURE OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
   SHEAR...SOME OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO START OUT DRY. ELSEWHERE...SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW RH READINGS.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE
   OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
   INCREASING SWLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 MPH BY
   AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT...NEAR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS IN STRONGER WIND FIELDS THAT A CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE
   INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID MS VALLEY...
   EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS COOLER THAN DAY ONE
   BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS 
   FROM 25-30 PERCENT. A BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST SUPPORTING
   NELY WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   INCREASING SELY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WILL OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
   FRONT RANGE OF WRN MT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
   TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY FROM DAY ONE WITH READINGS IN THE
   LOW-MID 70S. THIS WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY LOW RH READINGS AROUND 30
   PERCENT LIMITING A GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/27/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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