Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160711
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY OVER SRN CA AS
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...AND LOWER TO MID
   LEVELS WINDS BECOME ALIGNED ALOFT OUT OF THE NE...ON ERN SIDE OF
   UPPER RIDGE.  FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LOW
   RH CONDITIONS OVER THE SERN U.S. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT
   DRY NELY DOWNSLOPE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
   15-25 MPH TO THE COAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
   25-35 MPH FARTHER INLAND WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50-60 MPH IN
   FAVORED LOCATIONS.
   
   THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA IS VERY DRY.  SUNSHINE AND COMPRESSIONAL
   HEATING FROM DOWNSLOPING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
   MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   TO LOWER TEENS.  RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
   CONTINUE TO MIX WARM AND DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE.
   
   ALTHOUGH ADJECTIVE FIRE DANGER RATINGS ARE LOCALLY VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME...COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES REVEALS GREEN FUELS IN THE
   AREA WITH RELATIVELY MOIST FUEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. THE
   THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE IN AREAS WITH FINER FUELS.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER TODAY OVER FL DUE TO SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF
   THE AIR MASS WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.  FARTHER
   INLAND...INTO MS/AL/NRN GA / CAROLINAS...RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
   AT 25-30 PERCENT.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
   VERY LOW...SO THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL BE VERY LOW
   AS WELL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/16/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160732
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
   SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SERN STATES
   WILL MODIFY FURTHER AND ALLOW RH LEVELS TO RISE.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   NELY WINDS WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
   MORNING.  RH LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIEST AIR
   WILL BE JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH SHALLOW INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER
   TERRAIN MIXING OUT QUICKLY.  WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
   ON THURSDAY...AS CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT SEWD.  SUSTAINED
   WINDS OF 15-25 WILL REMAIN LIKELY TO THE COAST WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OF
   25-40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA. THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WILL
   BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY AS FUELS WILL HAVE HAD MORE
   TIME TO DRY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
   NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH...ALTHOUGH AREAS WITH
   FINE FUELS WILL BE AT RISK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 12/16/2004
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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