Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110906
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS WWD TO
   THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MTNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WLY TO NWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY FROM THE EAST
   SLOPES OF THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...ON UPWIND SIDE
   OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST COAST
   THIS PERIOD. CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED VERY DRY
   CONTINENTAL AIR...AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
   HIGH PLAINS REGION...ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SERN
   U.S.
   
   SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SERN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EWD
   TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY LIMITING GULF MOISTURE TO THE TX
   COASTAL AREAS. A SECOND MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD
   INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MORNING IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
   110-120KT 500MB JET. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL
   MIXING WITH GUSTY NWLY SURFACE WINDS AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - OK...KS...TX PANHANDLE...ERN
   CO...CENTRAL/WRN NEB...WRN SD...FAR SWRN ND...ERN WY...AND
   ERN/CENTRAL MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES /
   DORMANT GRASSES / ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   
   BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WNWLY TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH. DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON...GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NRN KS...CENTRAL/WRN NEB...AND WRN SD WHERE DEEP
   SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYERS TO 650-700MB ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
   70S...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT.
   UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS
   ABATE...CRITICAL RISK OF WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES WILL EXIST IN
   PREDOMINANTLY DEAD/DORMANT LATE WINTER GRASS CONDITIONS. FIRE
   OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
   WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES TODAY CONCERNING THE EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST/SERN ATLANTIC STATES WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT. SWLY WINDS ACROSS
   THE CAROLINAS AND WLY WINDS ACROSS MS/AL/GA/NRN FL WILL RANGE FROM
   20-30 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
   POSSIBLE. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL YIELD MINIMUM
   RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID
   50S TO MID 60S. LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN
   11/18Z AND 12/00Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DUE TO AMBIENT WIND/RH
   CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK IN
   MOST SECTIONS WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111011
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
   ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
   TILTED WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
   AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM ALBERTA INTO MT LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN AT 12/12Z
   WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 13/00Z.
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE SWD ACROSS NEB/KS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND REACH CENTRAL AR TO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY
   EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH GUSTY NLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
   REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 10-15F COOLER THAN
   EXPECTED CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN NEB NNWWD
   INTO THE BLACK HILLS OF SD...WITH SOME MODEST CORRESPONDING
   IMPROVEMENT TO RH MINIMUMS EXPECTED.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...A NLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS
   RANGING FROM 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF KS/NEB. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
   RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S IN NRN OK AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL KS...TO THE
   UPPER 40S ACROSS NWRN NEB WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
   THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH RH
   VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY/S EXPECTED CONDITIONS. RH
   MINIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
   MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO RH WILL
   PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...
   DEAD/DRY NATURE OF GRASS CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
   GRASSFIRE CONCERNS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN
   THE EVENT LOWER RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
   LATER MODEL FORECAST INFORMATION.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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