Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270648
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER N-CENTRAL TX EARLY
   THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EWD TO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS MTNS BY 28/12Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE OVER MS WILL
   STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN BY AFTERNOON. TRAILING
   COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO DEEP
   SOUTH TX. WITH 90-100KT 500MB JET STREAK TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE
   WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG DRYING IS
   EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES EWD TO THE AL/GA
   BORDER SWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE BY 28/00Z.
   
   UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING
   MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS AZ/NM THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM
   VALLEY/BASIN RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT ARE LIKELY...HOWEVER...THIS
   WILL OCCUR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ...DEEP SOUTH TX...
   
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE AFFECTING
   MUCH OF S-CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...
   SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX...AND AS NLY TO
   NWLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONSIDERABLE
   LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
   BEEN LIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. RESIDUAL SEA-LEVEL
   PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL GULF COAST CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM
   ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD YIELD NLY/NWLY WINDS OF
   15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 70S
   ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND NEAR 80 IN THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY. RH MINIMUMS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT BETWEEN
   27/20Z AND 28/00Z. CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN WIND AND RH
   CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AROUND SUNSET.
   EXPECTED DAYTIME RH AND WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
   CRITICAL LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CONSIDERABLE
   DRYING MAY YIELD A MARGINAL THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/27/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270647
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
   TO PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING
   INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
   LATEST NAM AND GFS RUNS INDICATE THAT AN ASSOCIATED 70-80KT 500MB
   JET WILL TRAVERSE AN AREA FROM SRN CA NEWD INTO CO/WY BY 28/18Z.
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD INDUCE
   SURFACE LEE TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARENT CYCLONE OVER ERN
   MT SWD ACROSS ERN WY...ERN CO...AND INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
   ADDITIONALLY...A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +10C DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
   SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A WINDY AND WARM
   AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
   
   WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ON
   DAY 1...DEVELOPING SLY/SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY LOW RH CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SRN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REGION. MINIMUM RH READINGS WILL RANGE
   FROM 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM EWD ACROSS WRN TX AND
   NWD ACROSS FAR WRN KS AND ERN CO. THE VERY LOW RH WILL BE AIDED BY
   MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE
   SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 80F. MUCH OF THIS
   REGION HAS EXPERIENCED RAIN AND/OR SNOW DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS AND
   FUEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMAL FOR WILDFIRES. 
   
   FURTHER EAST...AN AXIS OF RH MINIMUMS OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL LIKELY
   EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TX NWD INTO CENTRAL NEB WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
   GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS. LINGERING DEAD FUELS MAY YIELD SOME WILDFIRE
   POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER...RH
   VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL RISK
   AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/27/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home