Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280828
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL TRANSLATE INLAND REACHING AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MT SWD
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 29/12Z. THE DOWNSTREAM 500MB RIDGE
   ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON ALONG
   WITH ASSOCIATED 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES
   700MB TEMPERATURES OF +10C NEAR THE CENTER OF THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELD
   ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE FALLS AND LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM PARENT SFC CYCLONE OVER
   MT SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. PRESENCE OF MODIFIED
   CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AT PRESENT WILL LIMIT
   LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AS DAYTIME WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF
   THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. ACROSS AZ/NM...SWLY
   500MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 60-70KT AS JET STREAK
   ASSOCIATED WITH WRN U.S. TROUGH PROPAGATES SEWD INTO THE REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND BASINS OF AZ/NM...
   
   SLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
   PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON FROM N-CENTRAL TX NWD TO NEB IN
   RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
   WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
   70S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35
   PERCENT. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   FURTHER WEST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SWLY WEST OF LEE TROUGH AXIS
   ACROSS SERN CO/ERN NM AND FAR SWRN TX. DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW RH VALUES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
   AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. SIMILAR AMBIENT
   CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VALLEY/BASIN LOCATIONS
   OF SRN NM WWD TO CENTRAL/SRN AZ. WHILE SOME GRASSFIRE THREAT WILL
   EXIST ESPECIALLY IN LINGERING AREAS OF DEAD WINTER GRASSES IN THE
   HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM/SWRN TX...GENERAL WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH
   DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/28/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280827
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CST MON MAR 28 2005
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN NEW MEXICO AND
   WRN/SWRN TEXAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES AT 29/12Z INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 30/00Z. THE NAM/GFS ARE
   CONSISTENT WITH A VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NEAR THE
   TROUGH BASE ACROSS SRN NM/WRN TX...WITH 70-80KT WINDS AT 500MB IN
   THIS REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR DEEP VERTICAL
   MIXING IN DRY LOW-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH JET STREAK
   SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WLY SFC WINDS AND VERY LOW RH VALUES. THIS
   WILL PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER HAZARD IN DRY FUEL LOCATIONS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS AND VALLEYS OF SRN NM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NM...WRN/SWRN TX...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   VALUES
   
   WLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN
   FAVORABLE MTN PASSES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID
   80S ACROSS SWRN TX...AND INTO THE 70S ACROSS FAR WRN TX...SRN
   NM...AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WRN TX...COMBINED WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW WILL YIELD VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT. NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED MIXING WILL EXTEND ABOVE 700MB FROM
   29/18Z THROUGH 30/01Z. THIS SUGGESTS PERIOD OF STRONG AND GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
   WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALSO EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT DRYING OF
   REMAINING DEAD WINTER GRASSES IS LIKELY...AND SUGGESTS WIND-DRIVEN
   GRASSFIRE POTENTIAL DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING
   ACROSS MOST SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS AND WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/28/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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