Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 170716
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN GA / NRN AND CENTRAL FL / ERN
   FL PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY FOR MANY PARTS OF THE
   NATION...DUE TO LARGE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT.  THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD
   WITH TIME WITH AXIS ALONG MS RIVER BY MONDAY MORNING.  OUT WEST...A
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
   ROCKIES...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN MT INTO THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN BY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
   FRONT...FROM THE GREAT BASIN NEWD TO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THE FRONT WILL
   SURGE INTO ERN MT AND NRN WY OVERNIGHT.
   
   FARTHER E...SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN E OF THE MS RIVER...WHERE RH
   VALUES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN GA / NRN AND CENTRAL FL / ERN
   FL PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUATION OF LOW RH VALUES WITH WARMING
   TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
   
   ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS
   DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...CAUSING RH VALUES
   FROM 20-30 PERCENT TO OCCUR.  HIGHS WILL NEAR 80 OVER THE FL
   PANHANDLE WHERE LOCAL MIN RH VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
   WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL FL AT 15-20 MPH...WITH
   SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INTO SRN GA. CRITICAL THREAT WILL BEGIN BY
   MIDDAY AND WILL PEAK LATE AFTERNOON.  RH WILL RECOVERY QUICKLY AFTER
   SUNSET AS WINDS WEAKEN.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND SRN SC / E CENTRAL GA...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. IN
   ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY WITH
   HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL BE VERY LOW FROM 15-25
   PERCENT...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAK AT 5-10 MPH...LIMITING FIRE
   SPREAD POTENTIAL.
   
   ...WY / ERN MT / WRN DAKOTAS...
   IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WINDY TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
   FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  OVER WY...SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS
   WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COMMON IN THE
   HIGH TERRAIN. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS OVER ERN MT WITHIN LOW PRESSURE
   TROUGH.  RH WILL BE LOW E OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH VALUES RANGING
   FROM 15-20 PERCENT ERN MT / WRN DAKOTAS TO 10-15 PERCENT OVER WY.
   LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...AND WILL ALLOW FOR
   STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH ALL OF ERN MT AND INTO NRN WY BY
   MIDNIGHT.  WINDS WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NWLY WITH FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...AND STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY KEEP RH VALUES FROM
   RECOVERING VERY QUICKLY. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE INTO CENTRAL WY UNTIL
   MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL
   DUE TO MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY...AND NIGHT TIME COLD
   FRONT PASSAGE.
   
   ...CENTRAL NV INTO WRN UT...
   A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NRN UT INTO SRN NV BY
   LATE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS
   TROUGH WILL BE WARM AND DRY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AS UPPER SYSTEM
   APPROACHES. STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP WINDS TO BE GUSTY.  SUSTAINED SWLY SPEEDS
   NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.  RH WILL BE LOW
   AT 10-15 PERCENT.
   
   THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOSTLY BE FELT OVER NRN NV / NRN
   UT...WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT
   WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD INTO CENTRAL NV BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WIND
   SHIFT WILL OCCUR WHEN RH LEVELS ARE RECOVERING.
   
   ...NRN VA INTO CENTRAL/WRN PA...
   DRY AIR MASS WILL WARM TODAY INTO THE 70S...WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW RH
   VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT.  THESE AREAS HAVE HAD LITTLE RAIN OVER THE
   PAST WEEK...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL HELP
   MINIMIZE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/17/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 170718
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROADENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WITH
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SRN
   GREAT BASIN...WITH WARM WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS
   FRONT. FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WILL REMAIN
   OVER THE ERN / SERN STATES WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY BUT WITH
   WEAKENING WINDS.
   
   ...NRN AZ / SRN UT / FAR WRN CO...
   A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NW CO SWWD ACROSS SRN UT AND
   INTO SRN NV / NWRN AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IT WILL BE DRY AND WINDY
   WITHIN THIS TROUGH.  LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE
   STEEP...INDICATING STRONG TURBULENCE AND INSTABILITY DURING THE
   DAYLIGHT HOURS.  SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
   NEAR 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
   BE PARTICULARLY WARM...RANGING FROM THE 60S IN CENTRAL UT AND NWRN
   CO TO THE 80S IN SRN NV. AS A RESULT...LARGE SCALE RH VALUES MAY NOT
   BE MUCH BELOW 15 PERCENT.  GIVEN MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS...SITUATION
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...SRN GA / NRN FL...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WILL KEEP RH VALUES LOW
   DURING THE DAY.  MIN VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON. GIVEN
   SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW RH...THREAT OF FIRES MAY BE ON THE
   INCREASE...DESPITE DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
   CONDITIONS APPEAR BORDERLINE CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/17/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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