Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180605
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD THIS PERIOD...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NWRN STATES. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS RAPID AMPLIFICATION TODAY FROM
BAJA CA NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
A COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NH/ME THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT.
...SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NM/AZ WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER
DAYTIME WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD AND WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS. SEASONABLY LOW RH VALUES ARE LIKELY...WITH MINIMUMS
BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT FROM FAR WRN TX/SRN NM WWD ACROSS THE BASINS
OF AZ...SERN CA...AND SRN NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S.
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT
BASIN WILL YIELD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
SERN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN NV TODAY. INCREASING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT AND
DOWNWARD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ACROSS SERN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT...SOME
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY WITH ANY AREAS OF DRY FINE FUELS. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EXCEPT ACROSS RIDGE TOPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
SUNSET.
...PA AND SRN TIER OF NY...
UNSEASONABLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE NERN U.S. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOW MOVING SURFACE HIGH AND COLD CORE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AN AREA OF MARGINALLY LOW SURFACE RH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY /30-40 PERCENT/ AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT NWLY WINDS OF 5-10 MPH AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... GENERALLY IN THE 60S...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
..BANACOS.. 05/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 180644
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...CONTINUED NEWD AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500MB
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO SRN CO IS FORECAST BY CURRENT
GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO SRN
WY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE-SCALE
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT
PLAINS.
UPSTREAM OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY
STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CA NEWD
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SRN PERIPHERY OF
THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SWRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY.
...SERN CA/SRN NV/FAR WRN AZ...
FINE FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...RH MINIMUMS WILL RANGE
FROM 8-15 PERCENT. GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND REGION
WITHIN SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AREAS OF SWLY 15-25
MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT FIRE DANGER CLASS
RATINGS ARE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...
FURTHER DRYING OF FINE FUELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD YIELD A
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..BANACOS.. 05/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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