Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180605
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NERN PACIFIC WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
   EWD THIS PERIOD...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
   NWRN STATES. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BEGINS RAPID AMPLIFICATION TODAY FROM
   BAJA CA NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
   
   A COLD UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS NH/ME THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT.
   
   ...SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   
   AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NM/AZ WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER
   DAYTIME WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   FIELD AND WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 15
   MPH OR LESS. SEASONABLY LOW RH VALUES ARE LIKELY...WITH MINIMUMS
   BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT FROM FAR WRN TX/SRN NM WWD ACROSS THE BASINS
   OF AZ...SERN CA...AND SRN NV. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
   WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S.
   
   INCREASING INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN WILL YIELD A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
   SERN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN NV TODAY. INCREASING FLOW FIELDS ALOFT AND
   DOWNWARD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
   15-25 MPH ACROSS SERN CA AND CENTRAL/SRN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
   THIS EVENING. WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT...SOME
   LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...PRIMARILY WITH ANY AREAS OF DRY FINE FUELS. WINDS SHOULD
   SUBSIDE EXCEPT ACROSS RIDGE TOPS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER
   SUNSET.
   
   ...PA AND SRN TIER OF NY...
   
   UNSEASONABLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE NERN U.S. IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH SLOW MOVING SURFACE HIGH AND COLD CORE SYSTEM
   EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC SWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING...AN AREA OF MARGINALLY LOW SURFACE RH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY /30-40 PERCENT/ AND PERSIST INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. LIGHT NWLY WINDS OF 5-10 MPH AND BELOW NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES... GENERALLY IN THE 60S...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
   SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/18/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180644
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...CONTINUED NEWD AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500MB
   RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NWRN MEXICO INTO SRN CO IS FORECAST BY CURRENT
   GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS. COINCIDENT WITH THIS...700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL
   STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES NWD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO SRN
   WY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE-SCALE
   WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS STATES...FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN GREAT
   PLAINS.
   
   UPSTREAM OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY
   STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CA NEWD
   ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SRN PERIPHERY OF
   THESE GRADIENT WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SWRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...SERN CA/SRN NV/FAR WRN AZ...
   
   FINE FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
   INCREASING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO
   THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...RH MINIMUMS WILL RANGE
   FROM 8-15 PERCENT. GIVEN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND REGION
   WITHIN SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...AREAS OF SWLY 15-25
   MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT FIRE DANGER CLASS
   RATINGS ARE ONLY MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...
   FURTHER DRYING OF FINE FUELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD YIELD A
   MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/18/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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