Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190655
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS FAR NWRN MEXICO WILL BUILD
   NEWD ACROSS CO AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   FORECAST PERIOD. PRONOUNCED 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14C TO +15C/ WILL
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ACROSS NM AND
   CO. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES... ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH THIS EXPANSIVE UPPER
   RIDGE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-15 PERCENT...WITH LOWEST
   READINGS IN VALLEY/BASIN AREAS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR.
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SWRN GREAT BASIN AREA...SURFACE WINDS WILL
   BE LIGHT /GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS/ AND DRIVEN BY LOCAL
   MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA. 
   
   MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE
   NERN PACIFIC. BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /60-70KT AT 500MB/ WILL
   PREVAIL BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE SWRN U.S. RIDGE FROM N-CENTRAL
   CA ACROSS THE NWRN GREAT BASIN INTO WRN/CENTRAL MT. WEAK TO MODERATE
   FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY EWD
   ACROSS N-CENTRAL NV AND NRN UT.
   
   ...SERN CA...CENTRAL/SRN NV...AND SWRN UT...
   
   ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG FOUR CORNERS RIDGE...MODERATE
   SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS
   SERN CA...CENTRAL/SRN NV...AND SWRN UT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   20/03Z. WITH RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
   THE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WILDFIRE IN
   DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190740
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR SRN AZ ON DAY 2...WILL
   CONTINUE AS CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE...FROM NRN CA EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN AND NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
   ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE BLACK HILLS SWWD ACROSS SRN WY...NRN
   UT...AND N-CENTRAL NV. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND A
   LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN CO GIVEN HOT
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40KT ACROSS
   FAR NRN CO/SRN WY ON NRN FRINGE OF 500MB RIDGE. 
   
   THERMAL RIDGE AT 700MB INTENSIFIES AND EXPANDS NWD FROM WRN NM
   ACROSS CENTRAL CO AND INTO SERN WY/WRN NEB. NEAR RECORD HIGH
   TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD AND WWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTERIOR SRN CA ON FRIDAY...WITH
   VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT IN VALLEY/BASIN
   LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL ALSO BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF
   THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
   MITIGATING FACTOR IN REGARD TO ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN CO AND SRN UT...
   
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
   FRONT RANGE...AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING OF FINE FUELS
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEVELOPMENT AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST
   READINGS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. AREAS OF
   SLY TO SWLY WINDS 10-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING...WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN
   NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED STRONG SOLAR HEATING...AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES. LONGER TERM FUEL MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT A
   SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE THREAT AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...NOTEWORTHY
   DRYING OF FINE FUELS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS 700MB THERMAL
   RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NWD ACROSS REGION.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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