Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140901
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
   OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
   FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO ERN MI BY 15/00Z. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
   FRONT...SCT MOD/HVY RAINS WILL BE LIKELY. FARTHER WEST...UPPER
   RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE SLOWLY
   SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING
   OVER ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST. LOCALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS
   CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER DESERT SW IN RESPONSE
   TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...DESPITE VERY LOW RH READINGS
   FROM 6-12 PERCENT OVER THIS REGION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
   PERIOD PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...ERN AZ/WRN NM...
   ISOLATED HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD
   INTO THE AREA FROM NRN MEXICO AS MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SSELY EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER BENEATH THE CLOUD BASE WILL FAVOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN REACHING
   THE GROUND. OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER MID LEVEL PLUME DOWNWIND OF THE
   AREA SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED THREAT IS MOST LIKELY. IN ADDITION SOME
   MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED WWD INTO CENTRAL NM. ANY STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL NM MTNS WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY BUT QUICKLY
   BECOME WET AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140901
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE BETWEEN DAY ONE AND DAY TWO...WITH
   A TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGH IN THE
   WEST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SFC WINDS OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN THAN WILL OCCUR ON DAY ONE. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL
   LEAD TO HIGHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THIS REGION. HOWEVER...
   DURATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SWLY
   MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. WINDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
   WILL INCREASE TO OVER 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE/GRADIENT OVER THE
   REGION A LONGER DURATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SWRN STATES
   AHEAD OF WRN TROUGH. DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL LIMITED FORCING WILL PRECLUDE MORE THAN
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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