Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200933
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN SIERRA/CNTRL NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF WEST COAST WILL
   RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN JET MAX GRADUALLY
   MOVING WWD ACROSS CA/NW NV BY EVENING. WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO/NM TODAY...WITH THE
   MAIN WESTERLIES SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES.
   INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE
   THE CHANCES FOR DRY TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/NM INTO SRN UT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN SIERRA/CNTRL NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT/VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
   DANGER CLASS OBS
   
   ALTHOUGH MAIN JET MAX WILL BE SHIFTING WWD THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
   CA...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30-50 KT RANGE
   FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH INVERTED-V PROFILES WHICH WILL
   ALLOW FOR A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS TO AROUND 500-600MB.
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING PEAK
   HEATING...AND COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. LATEST NFDRS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
   100/1000HR FUEL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY BELOW 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...DRY TSTMS...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY SHOWS CLOUDS/CONVECTION DEVELOPED
   ACROSS ERN AZ AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SW NM WITH A FEW
   LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED NORTH OF SILVER CITY NM ON SUN AFTN.
   ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   CNTRL NM AND WRN/SW CO WITH ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY
   WINDS AND LITTLE RAIN. ACROSS AZ/SRN UT...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
   POSSIBLE BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST ACROSS AZ...SO THERE
   IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR DRY TSTMS FROM THE WHITE MTNS ALONG
   THE MOGOLLON RIM.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200934
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY IN
   ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF MAINLY DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EWD BY EARLY
   WED...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO ERN ORE/NW
   NV BY LATE TUE AFTN.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN...
   SUSTAINED SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ON
   TUE AFTN...THOUGH WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY
   BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 30S...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO
   REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 15 PERCENT. 
   
   ...DRY TSTMS...
   TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AZ/NM NWD INTO WRN MT/ID ON TUESDAY AFTN.
   WHILE ALL STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING...NCEP
   SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT HIGHER
   PROBABILITY OF DRY STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ AND WRN
   CO...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL BE MORE DEEPLY MIXED.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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