Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210950
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY TSTMS ACROSS ERN NV AND WRN
   UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING MID/HIGH
   LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO. WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY
   MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PLACING MUCH
   OF THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IN DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN.
   EVEN THOUGH STRONGEST JET WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE CA
   SIERRA/NRN ROCKIES...MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
   ASSOCIATED GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - DRY TSTMS ACROSS ERN NV AND WRN
   UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...CRITICALLY DRY
   FUELS/LOW RH AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
   IN CUMULUS CONVECTION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NV AND WRN/CNTRL
   UT...AN INDICATION THAT SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
   SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 80S/LOWER 90S TODAY...WITH SFC RH VALUES AS
   LOW AS 10-20 PERCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 9.0 C/KM WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...WITH TSTM BASES AROUND 600 MB. WITH SUCH A DRY SUB-CLOUD
   AIRMASS...TSTMS WILL CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE SFC. 
   
   COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS IS USUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...HOWEVER WITH
   STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AT MID/HIGH LEVELS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
   ENHANCED ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE...ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTN. 
   
   LATEST NFDRS FIRE DANGER CLASS OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE VERY HIGH TO
   EXTREME CATEGORY...WITH 100 HR FUEL MOISTURE GENERALLY BELOW 5
   PERCENT. IN ADDITION LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY IS GREATER THAN
   20 PERCENT ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
   WILL BE ACROSS WRN UT...WHERE STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT STORMS INTO
   ADJACENT VALLEYS. STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS WILL
   ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN INTO SE ORE/SRN ID...
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS SE ORE/SW ID
   AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...SFC WINDS WILL
   AGAIN BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT IT APPEARS
   SFC RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AT 15 PERCENT OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
   OF THE REGION. FIRE DANGER CLASS OBS ARE IN THE LOW/MODERATE RANGE
   ACROSS ORE/ID. 
   
   ...ISOLD DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE WEST...
   ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE FROM WRN AZ/NM NWD TO
   MT AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PLEASE SEE LATEST SWODY1 FOR GUIDANCE
   ON GENERAL TSTMS. ISOLD DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE ORE/SW
   ID...WHERE MICROBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. STORMS ACROSS
   CO/NM DO NOT POSE AS MUCH OF A DRY LIGHTNING RISK BECAUSE FUELS ARE
   NOT CRITICALLY DRY AND SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210953
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS BC AND ALBERTA. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
   FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE CNTRL
   CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
   NUDGED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH WEAKENING HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL MT/SRN ID/NRN NV
   BY LATE WED AFTN.
   
   ...MT...
   GUSTY POST FRONTAL SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND
   CNTRL MT...WITH SUSTAINED W/SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
   MPH. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...WITH
   FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT.
   
   ...ISOLD DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST...
   SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
   TSTMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON WED. MOST OF
   THE CONVECTION SHOULD FORM IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS...WITH THE
   THREAT OF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR TSTMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/21/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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