Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220740
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND
   ADJACENT AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CO/NM WILL
   WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA TODAY.
   THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO NEWD ACCELERATION OF UPPER TROUGH OFF
   THE ORE COAST ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES REGION THROUGH 23/12Z. STRONG
   700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MT SWWD ACROSS WRN ID
   INTO FAR NWRN NV THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE
   PERSISTING EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED ON BAND OF
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN
   ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE MENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MUCH OF NV...CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA
   MTNS OF CA...FAR SERN ORE...AND SRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   DRY SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER AREA...BETWEEN THE NWRN U.S. TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE
   ACROSS CO/NM. DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED-LAYERS ACROSS
   THE WRN GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN DOWNWARD MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT
   OF SLY TO SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE AREA. BASIN/VALLEY SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
   90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW RH MINIMUMS OF 10-15 PERCENT.
   FURTHERMORE...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CLASS RATINGS
   OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NV YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD
   RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN/NERN
   NV INTO NWRN UT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY LIGHTNING NEAR
   CONVECTION WILL POSE A FIRE WEATHER HAZARD... ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
   A SEPARATE DRY THUNDER RISK AREA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
   
   WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY FLOW FROM BAJA CA SHOULD MAINTAIN MOISTURE PLUME
   ACROSS SERN CA/WRN AZ ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG RESULTING
   FROM PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
   SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER LOW IN LOW-LATITUDE ELY FLOW ACROSS SWRN
   NM...WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WWD ACROSS SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC
   LIFT COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM UPPER LOW SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS. CONTINUATION OF VERY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES /HIGHS
   110-115F/ AND EXTREME SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 60-70F WILL
   ENHANCE DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS IN/NEAR THE
   LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/22/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220739
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL
   MT AT 23/12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ALONG THE U.S. / CANADIAN BORDER
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THE
   PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...WHILE EXTENDING FROM THE SWRN CONUS EWD THROUGH THE MID AND
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW-MOVING
   UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE CA COAST MAINTAINING A WEAK TO
   MODERATE SWLY FLOW ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH
   OF THURSDAY.
   
   ...WRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE/RH IS EXPECTED
   WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY LIGHTER
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /GENERALLY SLY TO SWLY AT 10-20 MPH/ SHOULD
   PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS NRN NV TO THE LOW
   100S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN NV/FAR SWRN UT. RH MINIMUMS WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST READINGS AT
   LOWER ELEVATION STATIONS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/22/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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