Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240647
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
   STATES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - SOUTHERN GREAT
   BASIN...INTERIOR SRN CA...AND NWRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ELONGATED...STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESIDES THIS MORNING FROM THE
   SRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO
   THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MAIN BELT OF BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES REMAINS
   CONFINED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE
   GREAT LAKES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
   S-CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER INTERIOR WA.
   LOOP OF WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW JUST
   WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITH MONSOONAL LIKE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   PLUME AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION FROM
   S-CENTRAL AZ NWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO WY/SRN MT.
   
   FUEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE EXTREMELY DRY FROM SWRN NM/SERN AZ NWWD
   THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT SRN CA AND
   SRN/CENTRAL NV. GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING INDICATED MODERATELY LARGE WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES EMANATING
   FROM POINTS 20WNW LAS AND 50 WNW EED...NEAR THE SRN NV/SRN CA
   BORDER...IN DEEPLY-MIXED...HOT AND EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN NV...SWRN UT...WRN
   AZ...AND INTERIOR SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE SURFACE WINDS / EXTREME TEMPERATURES
   AND RH VALUES / VERY DRY FUELS
   
   ANTECEDENT FUEL AND AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT
   BASIN...INTERIOR SRN CA...AND WRN AZ THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
   PERIOD. NAM ACCELERATES OFFSHORE UPPER LOW EWD TO THE CA COAST BY
   TONIGHT. SWLY GRADIENT FLOW AT 500MB IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
   50-60KT ACROSS SRN CA INTO SWRN NV BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
   THERMAL THROUGH WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AND EXTEND FROM SRN AZ NWWD
   INTO W-CENTRAL NV. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING UP THROUGH 12-15
   KFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   DOWNWARD MIXING OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SWLY
   SURFACE WINDS...LOCALLY TO 20-30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
   AND CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. AT HIGHER
   ELEVATIONS...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG GIVEN CONTINUATION OF
   STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE THREAT AREA...WITH POOR RH
   RECOVERY.
   
   VALLEY/BASIN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
   110F. EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES OF 6-10 PERCENT ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR
   A PERIOD SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA...SIMILAR TO OBSERVED RH READINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN/ERN NV...SWRN UT...NWRN
   AZ...AND INTERIOR SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
   WILDFIRE INITIATION HAZARD
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION
   OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SHOULD
   RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
   EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
   WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. STORMS WILL BE VERY HIGH-BASED...
   RESULTING IN THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH DRY MICROBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
   OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE STEEP AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE THE MOST
   PRONOUNCED.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/24/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 240646
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
   STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
   NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS INTERIOR CA...THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN...AND CENTRAL/WRN AZ. SWLY 500MB WIND SPEEDS OF
   45-55KT ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONE BY LATEST NAM
   AND GFS RUNS. DRY FUELS RESULTING FROM PROLONGED EXTREME SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES DURING PAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MODERATE SWLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS A
   LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
   SATURDAY EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - INTERIOR SRN CA...CENTRAL/SRN
   NV...SWRN UT...AND CENTRAL/WRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE SURFACE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES /
   WIDESPREAD DRY FUELS
   
   SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND
   DESTABILIZES. THIS WILL REPRESENT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND
   SPEED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SURFACE
   WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR SRN CA WITH CONTINUED
   INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
   WITH RH MINIMUMS OF 5-20 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS IN
   VALLEY/BASIN LOCATIONS. MODERATE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POOR RH RECOVERY
   EXPECTED. 
   
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS S-CENTRAL AZ
   NWD INTO FAR SRN UT. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
   EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH...AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WHILE NAM-KF SOUNDINGS
   PRESENTLY INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS... AREA OF MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN AND WILL PRECLUDE SEPARATE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/24/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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