Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240647
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...INTERIOR SRN CA...AND NWRN AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED...STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS RESIDES THIS MORNING FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MAIN BELT OF BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
S-CENTRAL CANADA AND A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER INTERIOR WA.
LOOP OF WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW JUST
WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITH MONSOONAL LIKE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION FROM
S-CENTRAL AZ NWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO WY/SRN MT.
FUEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE EXTREMELY DRY FROM SWRN NM/SERN AZ NWWD
THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT SRN CA AND
SRN/CENTRAL NV. GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INDICATED MODERATELY LARGE WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES EMANATING
FROM POINTS 20WNW LAS AND 50 WNW EED...NEAR THE SRN NV/SRN CA
BORDER...IN DEEPLY-MIXED...HOT AND EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN NV...SWRN UT...WRN
AZ...AND INTERIOR SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE SURFACE WINDS / EXTREME TEMPERATURES
AND RH VALUES / VERY DRY FUELS
ANTECEDENT FUEL AND AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT
BASIN...INTERIOR SRN CA...AND WRN AZ THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NAM ACCELERATES OFFSHORE UPPER LOW EWD TO THE CA COAST BY
TONIGHT. SWLY GRADIENT FLOW AT 500MB IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
50-60KT ACROSS SRN CA INTO SWRN NV BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
THERMAL THROUGH WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AND EXTEND FROM SRN AZ NWWD
INTO W-CENTRAL NV. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING UP THROUGH 12-15
KFT DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
DOWNWARD MIXING OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SWLY
SURFACE WINDS...LOCALLY TO 20-30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET. AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG GIVEN CONTINUATION OF
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE THREAT AREA...WITH POOR RH
RECOVERY.
VALLEY/BASIN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
110F. EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES OF 6-10 PERCENT ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR
A PERIOD SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AREA...SIMILAR TO OBSERVED RH READINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN/ERN NV...SWRN UT...NWRN
AZ...AND INTERIOR SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
WILDFIRE INITIATION HAZARD
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
EVENING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW. STORMS WILL BE VERY HIGH-BASED...
RESULTING IN THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH DRY MICROBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE THE MOST
PRONOUNCED.
..BANACOS.. 06/24/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240646
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS INTERIOR CA...THE
SRN GREAT BASIN...AND CENTRAL/WRN AZ. SWLY 500MB WIND SPEEDS OF
45-55KT ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONE BY LATEST NAM
AND GFS RUNS. DRY FUELS RESULTING FROM PROLONGED EXTREME SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING PAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MODERATE SWLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - INTERIOR SRN CA...CENTRAL/SRN
NV...SWRN UT...AND CENTRAL/WRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE SURFACE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES /
WIDESPREAD DRY FUELS
SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND
DESTABILIZES. THIS WILL REPRESENT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR SRN CA WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT
WITH RH MINIMUMS OF 5-20 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST READINGS IN
VALLEY/BASIN LOCATIONS. MODERATE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POOR RH RECOVERY
EXPECTED.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS S-CENTRAL AZ
NWD INTO FAR SRN UT. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. WHILE NAM-KF SOUNDINGS
PRESENTLY INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS... AREA OF MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL PRECLUDE SEPARATE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME.
..BANACOS.. 06/24/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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