Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250919
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0419 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NV / AR WRN UT / NWRN
   AZ / SRN CA DESERTS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...AS UPPER
   LOW OVER CENTRAL CA MOVES NEWD. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN
   CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NV/UT/AZ AND CA.
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH DRY
   STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF AZ / UT AND NV. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
   RH AND LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN AND ERN NV / AR WRN UT / NWRN
   AZ / SRN CA DESERTS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SLY WINDS / LOW RH / MDT HAINES
   
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND BREAK DOWN OF UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
   WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY.  SUSTAINED SLY SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. RH WILL REMAIN LOW RANGING FROM
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER SRN CA DESERTS TO NEAR 15 PERCENT OVER
   CENTRAL NV AND WRN UT.
   
   ...UT / AZ THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND N OF THE MOGOLLON
   RIM...INTO THE WASATCH OF UT. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DRY BUT WILL
   TRANSITION TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RECENT
   PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...AND MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
   20-25 PERCENT...CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY THUNDER WILL NOT BE ISSUED ON
   THE LARGE SCALE. HOWEVER...HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ALL DRY STORMS
   WILL BE ON WRN FRINGE OF MOIST PLUME...OVER FAR WRN UT / NWRN AZ AND
   NEAR THE ERN NV BORDER.
   
   ...NERN NV...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SRN ID SWD ACROSS NWRN NV. STORMS MAY BE DRY
   INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO WET WITH GUSTY WINDS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH. STRONG HEATING AND
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE ONGOING FIRES
   TODAY WITH MDT HAINES DEVELOPING.
   
   ...CENTRAL AND ERN VA AND NC...
   SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER VA AND
   NC...WHERE RH WILL DROP INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE. KBDI VALUES
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ABOVE MODERATE LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/25/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251005
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN NV / SWRN UT / NWRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
   NEWD...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGE TO REBOUND NWWD DURING THE DAY. WARM
   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL BE WINDY AND DRY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FROM ERN UT
   INTO ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN NV / SWRN UT / NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MDT GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH AND HIGH HAINES
   
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR ONGOING
   FIRES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY SWLY WINDS.
   MODERATE FLOW ALOFT ON NRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG HEATING
   WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.
   RH LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND INTO THE SINGLE
   DIGITS SRN AREAS.
   
   IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
   PLACE WITH MDT TO HIGH HAINES BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY DRY AND
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ENHANCED FIRE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
   MUCH OF SRN NV / FAR WRN UT AND PORTIONS OF SRN CA DESERTS. RH
   RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS.
   
   ...ERN UT / MUCH OF NRN AND WRN NM / ERN AZ...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON
   SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS FROM UT
   INTO ERN AZ AND CENTRAL/WRN NM. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND JUST ENOUGH
   MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OVER THE
   HIGH TERRAIN...MOVING IN AN ELY DIRECTION DUE TO CLOCKWISE FLOW
   AROUND UPPER HIGH. IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE THREAT DUE TO DRY
   LIGHTNING...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE
   DRY THUNDER THREAT...SWLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
   WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/25/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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