Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020858
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE CONUS AT UPPER LEVELS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY... CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM/MX BORDER REGION. VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN OCCUR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
   OVER THE SWRN...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES STATES. A PRONOUNCED
   SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING SFC WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN
   LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS.
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN...
   EFFECTS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BE TO
   AID IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY LOW DEWPTS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS
   ARE FCST TO BE ABOVE 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
   THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...RECENT NFDRS DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE
   AREA IS NOT IN HIGH OR GREATER FIRE DANGER. THUS A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED DESPITE THE MODERATE
   WINDS/RH READINGS FCST. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE WINDS/RH...
   ISOLATED/MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN ID...NRN UT
   AND WRN WY/NWRN CO WHERE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED
   WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE DRY LOW
   LEVELS WILL BE COEXIST.
   
   ...SWRN STATES...
   FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF SRN AZ/SERN CA...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS FCST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
   CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MX. THE SENSIBLE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
   SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN AZ/SERN CA THAN SEEN
   IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS MIN RH READINGS ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM
   AROUND 5-10 PERCENT...AS COMPARED TO 3-8 PERCENT OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
   OTHERWISE SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS WILL BE AOB 15 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
   GUSTS OVER 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON FCST
   SOUNDINGS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER MOST
   OF THE SOUTHWEST...HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE CONFINED
   TO PORTIONS OF ERN AZ/NM. THIS IS WHERE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
   WILL EXTEND UPWARD OF 500 MB /15-20 KFT AGL/ SUPPORTING PLUME
   DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
   OCCASIONAL SWLY GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AS REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF STRONG
   MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. MIN RH READINGS ARE AGAIN
   EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 PERCENT. LACK OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
   RATES BEYOND 600 MB SUGGESTS THAT PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH MAY BE
   SUPPRESSED TODAY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020901
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AGAIN ON DAY TWO...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL
   FEATURE ACROSS THE CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM DAY
   ONE TO DAY TWO WHILE BEING CENTERED GENERALLY SW OF ELP. VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGERS IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES...GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS
   OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...GENERALLY LIGHT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THIS
   REGION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS THE NATION NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...SW/GREAT BASIN...
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS FCST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY NEWD ACROSS AZ
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A CONTINUED
   ADVANCEMENT OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH/S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   SAMPLE FCST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/NAMKF SUGGEST AROUND A 5-15
   DEG DEWPT RISE OVER MANY SITES INCLUDING LAS...FLG AND PHX. THE NET
   RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME AS ON DAY ONE...WILL BE A
   RISE IN MIN RH READINGS BY 2-5 PERCENT. THUS MIN RH READINGS ARE
   FCST TO RANGE FROM 7-15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AZ INTO THE FAR SRN
   GREAT BASIN.
   
   OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AGAIN FCST TO BE BELOW CRITICAL
   VALUES...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS OVER THE SWRN STATES INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED
   LAYER...GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AZ
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...CLOSER TO THE MODERATE
   WESTERLIES ALOFT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH
   WILL RESIDE OF WRN NM NWD INTO WRN CO/ERN UT WHERE NEAR DRY
   ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND UPWARD TO 500 MB.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/02/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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