Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030907
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN
   DOMINANT ACROSS THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE NATION...WHERE
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST. LOW RH READINGS WILL COMBINE
   WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN ROCKIES. FARTHER NORTH...DESPITE
   LACK OF STRONGER SFC WINDS...LOW RH READINGS AND MID LEVEL
   FRONT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH TO AID IN SCT DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION OF CENTRAL/ERN UT AND WRN CO DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NATION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/ERN UT AND WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND
   GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
   
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PATTERN THAT AIDED IN SCT DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY OVER ERN NV INTO WRN/NRN UT ASSOCIATED WITH
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN UT AND WRN
   CO TODAY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV EARLY THIS
   MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN MID LEVEL
   COOLING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE 500-400 MB LAYER ABOVE A
   DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES. THIS
   COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DRY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
   GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS IN ADDITION TO THE
   LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY IN THE BASE
   OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
   SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS /15-20
   MPH/ FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MUCH OF
   ERN AZ/NM. A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS. COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MIN
   RH READINGS FROM 5-10 PERCENT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030910
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0410 AM CDT SUN JUL 03 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
   UPPER RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE SRN TIER OF STATES. ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE THE RESULT OVER THE SRN STATES...WITH LOW
   RH READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SWRN STATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER CA/NV BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. SLIGHT COOLING/ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITHIN PREEXISTING
   MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY AID IN ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. LACK OF MODERATE
   SFC WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE
   WEST.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN...
   MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN ORE EWD ACROSS SRN ID
   INTO FAR NRN UT DURING THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF EXPECTED DEVELOPING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA/NV...SUFFICIENT LIFT AND REMNANT MID LVL
   MOISTURE ALONG THIS ZONE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM/DRY
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM LATE DAY ONE WILL LIKELY SEND MOISTURE WWD
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS/RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF
   CENTRAL NM. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL EXIST AT MID LVLS THAT
   CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE REGION ON DAY TWO. CLOUD BASES
   AROUND 500 MB ABOVE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY ISO DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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