Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 110844
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
   MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL CANADA. THE
   TRAILING BAND OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WILL LIFT NWD AS
   MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE
   GREAT BASIN. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT
   BASIN EWD INTO S-CENTRAL WY WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
   WARMING TREND COMMENCES FROM CENTRAL CA NWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC
   NW AND NRN ROCKIES. A LARGE REGION OF HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
   WILL ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL/SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH LOWER
   ELEVATION TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. LIGHT WINDS...LARGELY
   DRIVEN BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...WILL PRECLUDE ANY
   LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS TODAY. HOWEVER... COMBINATION OF
   STEEP SURFACE-BASED LAPSE RATES THROUGH LOWEST 10-12 KFT AND VERY
   LOW RH VALUES OF 8-15 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS MAY CREATE
   SOME LOCALIZED PLUME DOMINANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN AREAS OF
   EXISTING DRY FUELS. BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOST
   LIKELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH IS SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM
   STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS
   CA AND THE GREAT BASIN.  
   
   MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... EXCEPT
   ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD TO THE SACRAMENTO
   MTNS OF S-CENTRAL NM WHERE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS
   ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 110842
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CURRENT GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MID-LEVEL
   ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY...WITH
   500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600DM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE REGION
   OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...BUT WITH
   GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RH MINIMUMS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT
   ARE EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL WY SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN
   CONUS. RH MINIMUMS BELOW 20 PERCENT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE
   N-CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA AND ACROSS SRN ORE...SRN ID...AND
   S-CENTRAL/SWRN MT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER IMPACT FROM
   PREVAILING UPPER HIGH WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DRYING FUELS. 
   
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD...ORIENTED FROM THE
   UPPER MS RIVER SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MTNS OF CENTRAL NM MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NM/S-CENTRAL CO
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD. A FEW OF
   THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
   ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/11/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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