Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 130913
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0413 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ / EXTREME WRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INTENSE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. MOISTURE MOVING WWD
ALONG SRN RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...OVER AZ AND NM. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL UT.
NRN EDGE OF RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EWD ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW INTO MT...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY WET...WILL BE
NUMEROUS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AZ / EXTREME WRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AREA OF MOISTURE THAT CAUSED NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NM YESTERDAY WILL
MOVE WWD INTO AZ...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
ACROSS E CENTRAL AZ. MIN RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL STILL BE
LIKELY DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. FARTHER
E...STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO WET INTO NM WHERE RH LEVELS WILL BE
HIGHER.
...CENTRAL UT...
IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
ALSO...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE VERTICAL CONVECTIVE
PLUMES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NRN WASATCH.
...BLACK HILLS AREA...
IT WILL WARMER TODAY WITH INCREASING SELY WINDS. AFTERNOON SPEEDS
NEAR 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH LEVELS WILL BE
LOW AND AROUND 15-20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 95-100.
OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO NWLY POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z.
...SWRN MT / ERN ID / NWRN WY...
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO OCCUR...AND
BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED. GIVEN
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WETTING
RAINS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
..JEWELL.. 07/13/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 130940
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E CENTRAL AZ / W CENTRAL NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
WRN DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. DESPITE SHIFTING WINDS IT WILL REMAIN WARM
AND A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE BLACK HILLS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE
CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM
OF AZ INTO THE WRN NM MTNS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
AZ NWWD INTO CA AND NV AND HAINES INDICES WILL BE HIGH UNDER THE
UPPER HIGH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - E CENTRAL AZ / W CENTRAL NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON DRY THUNDER WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES
AFTERNOON DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM
OF AZ INTO THE W CENTRAL MTNS OF NM. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. HOT AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. WLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MIN RH OF 10-15 PERCENT...AS SURFACE
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE 325 KELVIN.
..JEWELL.. 07/13/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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