Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 130913
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ / EXTREME WRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAIN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN INTENSE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
   ROCKIES...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. MOISTURE MOVING WWD
   ALONG SRN RIDGE PERIPHERY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...OVER AZ AND NM. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
   WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL UT.
   
   NRN EDGE OF RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EWD ACROSS
   THE PACIFIC NW INTO MT...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY WET...WILL BE
   NUMEROUS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING
   TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN AZ / EXTREME WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
   
   AREA OF MOISTURE THAT CAUSED NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NM YESTERDAY WILL
   MOVE WWD INTO AZ...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT. AS A
   RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
   ACROSS E CENTRAL AZ. MIN RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT WILL STILL BE
   LIKELY DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. FARTHER
   E...STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO WET INTO NM WHERE RH LEVELS WILL BE
   HIGHER.
   
   ...CENTRAL UT...
   IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE CENTER.
   ALSO...WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS WILL
   PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE VERTICAL CONVECTIVE
   PLUMES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR OVER THE
   CENTRAL AND NRN WASATCH.
   
   ...BLACK HILLS AREA...
   IT WILL WARMER TODAY WITH INCREASING SELY WINDS. AFTERNOON SPEEDS
   NEAR 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH LEVELS WILL BE
   LOW AND AROUND 15-20 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES OF 95-100.
   OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH A WIND SHIFT
   TO NWLY POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z.
   
   ...SWRN MT / ERN ID / NWRN WY...
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO OCCUR...AND
   BY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED. GIVEN
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WETTING
   RAINS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/13/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 130940
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0440 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E CENTRAL AZ / W CENTRAL NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
   WRN DAKOTAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. DESPITE SHIFTING WINDS IT WILL REMAIN WARM
   AND A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE BLACK HILLS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE
   CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
   ALONG WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
   SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM
   OF AZ INTO THE WRN NM MTNS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
   AZ NWWD INTO CA AND NV AND HAINES INDICES WILL BE HIGH UNDER THE
   UPPER HIGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - E CENTRAL AZ / W CENTRAL NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED AFTERNOON DRY THUNDER WITH HOT
   TEMPERATURES
   
   AFTERNOON DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM
   OF AZ INTO THE W CENTRAL MTNS OF NM. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
   MAXIMIZE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN
   ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. HOT AND DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND WEAK
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY RAIN. WLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10
   MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MIN RH OF 10-15 PERCENT...AS SURFACE
   POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE 325 KELVIN.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/13/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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