Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150913
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0413 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL SIERRA INTO CENTRAL AND
   NRN NV / SRN UT / CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE WRN STATES UNDER
   STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER UT. COMBINATION OF
   STRONG HEATING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
   SURROUNDING AREAS. FARTHER N...STRONG AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE DAY...AND WILL BRING
   WITH IT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS MAY CAUSE
   HIGH WIND GUSTS IN THE MTNS OF WA / ID / MT/ OR...AS WELL AS
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
   WRN MT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL SIERRA INTO CENTRAL AND
   NRN NV / SRN UT / CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING /
   VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES
   
   ...WRN CRITICAL AREA - CA SIERRA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN...
   IT WILL BE EXTREMELY HOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 AND RH
   VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT IN GENERAL. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY GUSTY
   OUT OF THE WEST DUE TO STRONG MIXING...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10-15 MPH. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
   FROM THE CENTRAL SIERRA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NV. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
   WILL NOT BE GREAT...CHANCES OF FIRE STARTS WILL BE HIGH GIVEN VERY
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN CRITICAL AREA - SRN UT / NRN AZ...
   HOT CONDITIONS WILL HIGH HAINES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH WIDELY
   SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   FROM SRN UT SWD TOWARDS THE MOGOLLON RIM. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING
   COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY DENSE...VERY HOT CONDITIONS IN
   COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF POSSIBLE FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING
   WILL ACT TO INCREASE THREAT.
   
   ...ERN WA AND OREGON INTO ID AND WRN MT...
   WLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH. INCREASING
   SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
   AND RH OF 15-20 PERCENT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. THE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE NEAR RIDGE TOPS.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...FROM ERN ID / NWRN WY INTO SWRN
   MT. THESE STORMS WOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151019
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN NV / ERN ID / CENTRAL WY...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES...AND WILL CAUSE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. FARTHER
   SOUTH...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND A FEW DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF UT / NV / AZ.
   
   FARTHER E INTO THE NRN PLAINS...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER MT WILL
   CAUSE SLY WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH LOW RH ACROSS WRN SD / NEB.
   OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN MT / WRN DAKOTAS
   AND ERN WY...CAUSING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NWLY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN NV / ERN ID / CENTRAL WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD INTO ID / MT / WY ON
   SATURDAY...AND WILL CAUSE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
   GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH OVER ID...MT AND WY. CONFIDENCE IN RH FORECAST IS
   LOW AT THIS TIME...WITH MANY MODELS SHOWING MIN RH ABOVE 20 PERCENT
   OVER ERN ID AND WRN WY. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS FORECAST
   AND DRY AIR TO THE SW...EXPECT RH LEVELS MAY BE LOWER THAN
   FORECAST...WITH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER
   W INTO NV...BUT STILL AVERAGE NEAR 20 MPH WITH MIN RH OF 10-15
   PERCENT. IN ADDITION...A MIXTURE OF DRY AND WET STORMS WILL OCCUR
   FROM SWRN MT INTO ERN ID / WRN WY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WASATCH AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS OF UT ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN VERY HOT WITH A
   HIGH HAINES.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK WLY UPSLOPE WILL PROVIDE AN
   ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...ERN AZ / WRN NM...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOST WILL BE WET GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
   WATER VALUES OVER 0.75" AND SURFACE RH NEAR 20 PERCENT.
   HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS.
   
   ...BLACK HILLS REGION...
   DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT AND WINDY. RH
   LEVELS HOWEVER ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND
   BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS
   WILL MITIGATE FIRE THREAT...BUT WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH OUT OF
   THE SOUTH.  OVERNIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND
   WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH. RH
   LEVELS WILL NOT BE LOW OVERNIGHT THOUGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
   WHATEVER RAIN FALLS...WILL MINIMIZE THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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