Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160918
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0418 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE/NRN NV/ID/SRN MT/NRN
   UT/WY/WRN SD...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   TODAY...WITH ISOLD DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STORM
   SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET MOVES
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SFC LOW LOCATED OVER WRN SASK THIS MORNING
   WILL DEEPEN  AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA BY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LOW
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE
   HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. BY THIS
   AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SW ACROSS WY/WRN DAKOTAS BEHIND THE
   TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT THROUGH THE
   DAY. VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES
   COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
   SUPPORT A RATHER LARGE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA TODAY.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN ORE/NRN NV/ID/SRN MT/NRN
   UT/WY/WRN SD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING/DRY
   FUELS
   
   COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN MT/SW ID EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
   EWD ACROSS MT/WY TODAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN SD
   INTO ERN CO. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...CHANGING
   WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
   ALSO POSE A DANGER. THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE WRN
   DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING MAXIMUM SFC
   TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 100S. LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
   10-15 PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/WY. 
   
   FINALLY...EVEN THOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO
   SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   STORM SYSTEM MAY ALLOW A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST
   PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WASATCH FRONT EWD INTO THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT ACROSS MT. ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG TSTM WIND
   GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
   
   ...DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   A COMBINATION OF WET/DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
   TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS WRN NM/WRN AND CNTRL CO/NW
   AZ AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING IS LIKELY GIVEN
   VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
   EARLY MONDAY WITH BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM NRN WY
   THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LEE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
   FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING
   AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
   LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NM/AZ WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION
   ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL WITH ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING.
   
   ...WY/NERN UT...
   SFC WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
   SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
   COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...SO RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
   OFFSET THE GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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