Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160918
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE/NRN NV/ID/SRN MT/NRN
UT/WY/WRN SD...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...WITH ISOLD DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY AS 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. SFC LOW LOCATED OVER WRN SASK THIS MORNING
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA BY TONIGHT. SECONDARY LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. BY THIS
AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO SW ACROSS WY/WRN DAKOTAS BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS MT THROUGH THE
DAY. VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES
COMBINED WITH LOW RH VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT A RATHER LARGE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA TODAY.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN ORE/NRN NV/ID/SRN MT/NRN
UT/WY/WRN SD...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS/MINIMUM RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING/DRY
FUELS
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN MT/SW ID EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS MT/WY TODAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN SD
INTO ERN CO. IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...CHANGING
WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO POSE A DANGER. THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING MAXIMUM SFC
TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 100S. LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
10-15 PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/WY.
FINALLY...EVEN THOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO
SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT...STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
STORM SYSTEM MAY ALLOW A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WASATCH FRONT EWD INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN WY. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS MT. ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG TSTM WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
...DRY TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
A COMBINATION OF WET/DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS WRN NM/WRN AND CNTRL CO/NW
AZ AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING IS LIKELY GIVEN
VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160955
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY WITH BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM NRN WY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LEE TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SUPPORTING
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NM/AZ WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL WITH ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING.
...WY/NERN UT...
SFC WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER
SPEED MAX. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...SO RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE GUSTY WINDS.
..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home