Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200729
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
   EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...NOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS NWD THROUGH MANITOBA...WILL CONTINUE
   ENEWD INTO ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
   PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH
   REMAINING ZONAL FLOW AND 500MB WINDS OF 30-40KT EXTENDING FROM ID
   EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND NRN WY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO SD AND BACK NWWD INTO ERN MT WILL
   BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MT BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
   THE WEST...SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD WILL BE WEAK WITH A THERMAL
   TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN AZ NWWD ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA. SYNOPTIC
   CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD VERY HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES REGION...
   
   SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
   THE NRN ROCKIES AS LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
   DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. REDUCED VERTICAL MIXING
   POTENTIAL SHOULD RESULT IN A SUB CRITICAL LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA. STRONGEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
   WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
   MT...WITH GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS ID/MT/WY. LOWER
   ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF
   THE REGION...TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY OF ID. LOWER
   ELEVATION RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW...RANGING FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
   FURTHERMORE...PRESENCE OF VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE REGIME WILL SUPPORT VERY POOR NIGHTTIME RH
   RECOVERY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM VALLEY LOCATIONS. MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS BASED ON THE 20/00Z NAM SUGGEST RECOVERY TO ONLY 20-30
   PERCENT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
   OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY FUELS AND POSSIBLE
   WILDFIRES...HOWEVER...EXPECTED LOW TO MODERATE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
   WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA MTNS INTO THE SRN CASCADES...
   
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ IS
   EXPECTED TO STREAM NWD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
   SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH THE SRN CASCADES OF
   FAR NRN CA AND SRN ORE...AND FAR WRN/NWRN NV FOR ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ABSENCE
   OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY TO HIGHER
   TERRAIN AREAS AND KEEP OVERALL COVERAGE ISOLATED. AN ISOLATED DRY
   MICROBURST OR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
   HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200729
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NWRN CONUS AND NWRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
   EXCEEDING 600DM. ASSOCIATED HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO VERY LOW RH VALUES /GENERALLY 10-15 PERCENT/ FROM THE SWRN CONUS
   NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY AND CENTRAL/ERN MT. BOTH THE
   NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FROM 20/00Z INDICATE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT
   REACHES THE NWRN CA/SWRN ORE COAST BY 22/00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   AID IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE NWRN CONUS.
   ASSOCIATED FORCING THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL PVA WILL BRING A THREAT OF
   WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN WA...ORE FROM THE CASCADES
   EWD...NRN/NERN CA...NRN/NWRN NV...AND WRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS / DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS
   
   A THREAT OF WILDFIRE STARTS OWING TO DRY LIGHTNING WILL INCREASE
   DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
   TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
   SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIALLY BE DRY...GIVEN HOT AND
   DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
   DAYS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH
   WIDESPREAD...PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS THE
   NWRN GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES FROM NRN
   CA INTO FAR SRN WA. SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS NEWD
   INTO NERN ORE AND WRN ID DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH
   IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO INTERIOR ORE BY 22/12Z. MEASURABLE RAINFALL
   MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH STRONGER FORCING AS TROUGH TRACKS
   INLAND...HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF THE
   SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING
   THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. SOME REFINEMENT OF DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT
   MAY BE REQUIRED IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK...HOWEVER...A SCATTERED
   TO WIDESPREAD DRY LIGHTNING EPISODE APPEARS PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST
   SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CRITICAL
   AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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