Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210739
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   NWRN GREAT BASIN AND NWRN STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE AND VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NNWWD
   BRINGING AN EXPANSION OF VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES AND INTERIOR WA AND ORE. WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WV
   IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A SLOW...ENEWD MOVING UPPER LOW
   OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA. ADDITIONALLY...A LOW-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH
   IS EVIDENT MOVING NWWD ACROSS FAR SRN CA...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS
   CA/WRN NV THIS MORNING. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NWRN CONUS AND
   NWRN GREAT BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...VERY HOT
   TEMPERATURES /BASIN AND VALLEY HIGHS OVER 100F/ AND LOW RH VALUES
   WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER RIDGE. A NUMBER OF RECORD
   JULY HIGHS WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY...INCLUDING A MAXIMUM OF
   105F AT DENVER. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL
   MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   TODAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING/HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES MAY RESULT IN
   LOCALIZED PLUME DOMINANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
   WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE
   MTNS OF CO AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ.  EWD EXTENTION OF 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING NEAR RECORD HEAT TO
   PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NEB/KS... HOWEVER... FUEL CONDITIONS ARE
   GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES/GRASSFIRES IN THESE AREAS. NO
   OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL OR ERN CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN CA...NRN/NWRN NV...ORE ALONG
   AND EAST OF CASCADES...FAR WRN ID...AND S-CENTRAL WA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS / DRY FUELS / HOT
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   
   NWD ADVECTION OF MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE THIS MORNING SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOCALLY
   ELEVATED TERRAIN AREAS OF THE NWRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR NWRN
   CONUS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ON THE
   SYNOPTIC-SCALE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS OFFSHORE UPPER LOW
   PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE SWRN ORE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THIS EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
   RAINFALL GIVEN CONTINUED DEEP MIXING AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONDITIONS. STORMS DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL OF DRY MICROBURSTS WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC SURFACE
   WINDS...IN ADDITION TO DRY LIGHTNING WHICH WILL POSE THE HAZARD OF
   NEW WILDFIRE STARTS. CONVECTION ACROSS NRN CA AND WRN/CENTRAL ORE
   SHOULD BECOME WET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND FALLING PRECIPITATION ULTIMATELY SATURATE
   LOWER LEVELS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/21/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 210746
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE N-CENTRAL
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES IN
   RESPONSE TO MOBILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ORE ENEWD
   INTO WRN MT BY 23/00Z. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
   DAYTIME HEATING/VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
   SURFACE WINDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM SERN ORE/NRN NV EWD INTO WRN
   WY...WHERE RECENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LEFT FUELS VERY DRY. THIS
   WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
   
   ELSEWHERE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH STRONG UPPER
   RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WWD
   AND SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOCALIZED FIRE
   WEATHER PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN PROLONGED HOT
   TEMPERATURES...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY FUELS
   ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...WEAK SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT LARGE-SCALE
   WINDS...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN ORE...NRN NV...NRN
   UT...CENTRAL/WRN WY...AND SRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE SURFACE WINDS / HOT TEMPERATURES / LOW
   RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   WLY SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 15 TO LOCALLY 30 MPH FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERTICAL MIXING BENEATH STRENGTHENING
   MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.
   LITTLE MODIFICATION IN LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY...AS
   DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW MAINTAINS VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RH
   CONDITIONS /MINIMUMS OF 10-20 PERCENT/ AND LOWER ELEVATION HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. FUELS ARE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
   REGION...AND SHOULD SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/21/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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