Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 220820
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
   U.S....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT
   MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ON WRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE SWRN ORE COAST WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL ORE INTO CENTRAL MT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL
   BRING MODERATE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NWRN GREAT BASIN
   AND SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS...AND ALSO INDUCE A MARINE PUSH EAST OF THE
   CASCADES OF WA/ORE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BRING A
   MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - INTERIOR WA/ORE...NERN CA...NRN
   NV...FAR NWRN UT...AND SRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   / ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
   
   BAND OF SWLY 500MB WINDS RANGING FROM 35-45KT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
   NWRN GREAT BASIN INTO SRN ID THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
   FALL AND GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE WITH MOBILE UPPER TROUGH. DOWNWARD
   MIXING WILL RESULT IN WLY/SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THE
   PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
   ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VALLEY AND
   BASIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20 PERCENT. GIVEN DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS...WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AN
   AXIS FROM NERN CA ENEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE
   SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF ID.
   
   FURTHER NORTH...SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND
   ALLOWING FOR A MARINE PUSH ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES IN
   WA/ORE. WLY WINDS LOCALLY OF 20-30 MPH MAY RESULT IN A MORE
   LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL ORE NWD INTO
   THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   LASTLY...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE VALLEYS WILL
   LIKELY OCCUR AS UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF MOBILE TROUGH TRANSLATES
   ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THESE ISOLATED
   DRY TSTMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND
   POTENTIAL FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS.
   
   ...ERN ID/WRN MT...
   
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE MTNS OF ERN ID/WRN MT SHOULD
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF
   UPPER FORCING WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAGNITUDE OF
   MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SFC PRECIPITATION WITH MOST
   STORMS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN. SOME THREAT EXISTS
   FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS AND LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURSTS...BUT PRESENT
   TRENDS SUGGEST DRY TSTM CRITICAL AREA WILL NOT BE NEEDED OWING TO
   SHORT DURATION OF THREAT. 
   
   ...UT/WRN CO...
   
   SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
   DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES GIVEN HEATING OVER THE
   MTNS AND CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM INDICATES
   THAT PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.8-1.0 IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING
   WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST INDIVIDUAL CELLS. HOWEVER...
   RECENT RECORD TEMPERATURES DURING LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS RESULTED IN
   AREAS OF VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
   OCCURRING ON THE FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION SHAFTS WILL CARRY A HIGHER
   THAN NORMAL THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/22/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 220938
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
   MONTANA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...EXPANSIVE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH AXES
   MOVING INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO COASTAL ORE/WA PER LATEST
   GFS RUN. STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES IS
   ANTICIPATED...WITH 50-60KT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN MT. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
   MORNING...EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 24/12Z.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   IN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT...STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
   WIDESPREAD WLY TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THE PEAK
   HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT HIGHS
   EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S SHOULD RESULT IN RH MINIMUMS OF
   15-20 PERCENT. MAGNITUDE OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MODULATED
   BY EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY WETTING RAINS
   OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON THE DAY 1 PERIOD. HOWEVER...
   PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DRYING BEHIND COLD FRONT UNDER
   MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TO YIELD A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/22/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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