Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280857
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   AND NRN ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM ORE INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES WHILE SHEARING OUT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG
   THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TO AID IN SCT DRY TSTMS OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN
   ROCKIES. PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH HAINES INDICES AND THREAT
   FOR SOME PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH OVER THIS REGION.
   OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE WEST WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
   VALUES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF NRN NV/NRN UT...SERN
   ORE...SRN/CENTRAL ID...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND NRN/WRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY AND
   ERRATIC WINDS
   
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE OREGON COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
   EWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
   OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LIFT/COOLING
   COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL /MONSOONAL/ MOISTURE RETURNING
   AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT SCT
   TSTMS OVER THE REGION. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE LATE
   MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN NV/SERN ORE/SWRN ID AND SHOULD LAST
   WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES OF NRN WY/SRN MT.
   DESPITE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...CLOUD BASES OF 8-10 KFT AGL AND PWAT VALUES FROM
   0.50-0.60 INCHES...THE STRENGTH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL
   SUPPORT FAST STORM MOTIONS AROUND 35 KTS. THIS SHOULD AID IN LITTLE
   TO NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND EVEN WITH STORMS THAT MAY BE
   SLIGHTLY WET.
   
   ...CENTRAL/ECENTRAL NV AND REMAINDER OF NRN UT...
   LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
   AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE DEEPENING WITH TIME. THUS CONVECTION
   MAY BEGIN AS DRY TSTMS EARLY IN THE EVENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEEPENING
   MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS /AREA CLOSER TO
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS/ THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280846
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
   SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. THUS MOST AREAS THAT WILL HAVE A
   THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS ON DAY ONE SHOULD SEE MAINLY WET TSTMS ON DAY
   TWO. HOWEVER...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
   EXIST ...THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A VERY WARM/DRY AND DEEP BOUNDARY
   LAYER BENEATH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AT
   LEAST ISOLATED DRY TSTMS OVER ERN UT AND MUCH OF CO INCLUDING THE
   FRONT RANGE.
   
   ...ERN UT AND MUCH OF CO...
   MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WWD ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SRN CO/NRN NM
   BORDER DURING THE PERIOD. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY MIXED
   ENVIRONMENT TO AROUND 15 KFT. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
   SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN ENOUGH
   UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMT OF COVERAGE OF TSTMS ATTM SINCE REGION WILL
   BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
   EFFECTS...AREA WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT FOR DAY TWO.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   ALONG THE NRN FRINGES OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...NAMELY FROM SERN
   ORE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ID INTO SWRN MT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   INITIALLY DRY. HOWEVER...LIMITED POTENTIAL AREA AND UNLIKELIHOOD
   THAT CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN DRY FOR LONG DURATIONS WILL PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/28/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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