Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290820
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
   GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WHILE SLOWLY BUILDING NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
   MEANWHILE...FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
   WITH BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.
   MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
   RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCT
   TSTMS OVER THIS REGION. ON THE NWD/EWD EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE DRY. HOWEVER...WITH
   LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS
   IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NV LATE YESTERDAY
   AND BACKGROUND MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
   MOVING NWD/EWD INTO MUCH OF THE NRN/ERN GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES TODAY. ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE MONSOONAL
   MOISTURE PLUME...FROM WCENTRAL ID EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MT...THEN
   SWD ACROSS ERN WY INTO CENTRAL/ERN CO A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP DRY
   ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO 10 KFT AGL BENEATH CLOUD BASES WILL EXIST TO
   SUPPORT MAINLY DRY TSTMS. GIVEN LACK OF WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING
   PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE THE OVERALL THREAT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED DRY
   TSTMS LOOKS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR DRY TSTMS...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH OVER THE FAR NRN ROCKIES CLOSER TO THE
   BELT OF MODERATE ZONAL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL/WARM TEMPERATURES AND
   DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290821
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
   DAY TWO WHILE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN STRENGTH NWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN CIRCULATE AROUND THE UPPER
   RIDGE AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AID IN
   SCT TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST. SIMILAR TO DAY ONE...THE
   OUTER EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE AREA WHERE
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
   MID LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS APPARENT ATTM...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
   FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS SMALL. ZONAL FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
   RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   THE OUTER EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FROM ERN ORE
   ACROSS TO SRN MT SWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN THIS
   ZONE...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DRY TSTMS AS A DEEP
   DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXISTS BENEATH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE
   UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LACK OF ANY WELL
   DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT MAY AID IN A MORE CONCENTRATED
   AREA OF DRY TSTMS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE
   ISSUED ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/29/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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