Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140815
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNUSUAL MID-AUGUST SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
   MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX NEWD
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS
   FOR SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SWD/SEWD THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
   TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...AS
   UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
   BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN SD WILL
   SLOWLY WEAKEN...BECOMING AN ELONGATED RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
   NEWD INTO SERN CANADA.
   
   PREVAILING 500MB FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BECOME
   LIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WEAKEN TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE
   NRN ROCKIES BY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...THERMAL LOW WILL BECOME
   REESTABLISHED ACROSS S-CENTRAL CA NNWWD INTO INTERIOR ORE...WITH
   SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
   WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...WITH LIGHT
   WINDS CONTROLLED PREDOMINATELY BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. RH
   MINIMUMS OF 10-20 PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WRN CO WWD THROUGH
   THE GREAT BASIN/INTERIOR CA AND NWD INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN. SURFACE
   WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LARGE-SCALE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SWD ALONG
   THE CENTRAL CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS
   FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS
   AFTERNOON. NWD ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY
   OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
   SIERRA MTNS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL
   NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA...AND THEREFORE COVERAGE OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
   
   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...LARGE-SCALE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140816
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LARGE-SCALE
   FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON DAY 2. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 700MB
   THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   WWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
   PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW /25-35KT AT 500MB/ IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   ESTABLISHED FROM THE PAC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. INSPECTION
   OF NAM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO
   AROUND 700MB IN BASIN/VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN
   SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS...WITH WLY WINDS OF
   10-20 MPH DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15
   PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM WRN UT AND CENTRAL/NRN NV NWD INTO THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS
   NRN/CENTRAL MT EAST OF THE DIVIDE...LIMITING LOW RH/MODERATE WIND
   SPEED CONDITIONS TO FAR WRN MT...ID...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
   WA/ORE. PRESENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE
   STRONG ENOUGH IN THESE AREAS TO RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL UPPER LOW EXPECTED OFF THE CA COAST SHOULD
   TRACK ENEWD REACHING THE S-CENTRAL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING.
   COMBINATION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING AND HEATING OF ELEVATED
   TERRAIN SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEEDED IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1
   OUTLOOK DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF OFFSHORE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE SIERRA MTNS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/14/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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