Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150647
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CA AND NV...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH MERGER OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY STRONG CLOSED LOW CENTERED 120NM
WSW OF LAX. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MAIN BELT OF
THE WESTERLIES REMAINS WELL NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN...ND...AND NRN/CENTRAL MT WITH A
LIGHT NLY WIND SHIFT.
A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WWD INTO
THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +15C.
REGION OF SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WY WWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND NWD ACROSS
INTERIOR WA/ORE. VALLEY/BASIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...RH MINIMUMS
OF 10-20 PERCENT...AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS INFLUENCED PREDOMINANTLY BY LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE
SEVERITY OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA MTNS...WRN/NWRN
NV...AND NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING/DRY MICROBURSTS...DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND NNWWD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION EAST OF UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. HEATING OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF NRN CA/WRN NV. CELLS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NNWWD...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO LOWER
TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SUB-CLOUD RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND LESS
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. IN ADDITION TO DRY
LIGHTNING THREAT...ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS NEAR CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND
INCREASING PW MAY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL NV DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..BANACOS.. 08/15/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150646
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - PORTIONS OF THE
NRN GREAT BASIN AND FAR SRN ID/SERN ORE...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD INTO W-CENTRAL NV BY 17/00Z WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN U.S./SRN CANADA.
AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS STATES. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW BRINGING
A THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND MTNS OF
FAR SRN ID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10-20
PERCENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NWRN STATES AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT AND ERN WY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR NRN UT...NRN NV...SERN
ORE...AND SRN ID...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING...DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS
DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND
SERN ORE/SRN ID. NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...WITH MARGINAL CAPE VALUES OF
100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE
NEWD FROM DECAYING UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NV. DRY LIGHTNING THREAT
ALONG WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS SUGGEST NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURST THREAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND CONVECTION.
...ERN SLOPES OF WA/ORE CASCADES...
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN ON DAY 2...IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WA/NRN ORE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CASCADES INDICATED BY NAM MAY BRING A MARINE PUSH WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH THROUGH MTN PASSES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN CONTINUED DRY TO VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
80S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE LOW 90S IN THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...FROM
15-20 PERCENT.
..BANACOS.. 08/15/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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