Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150647
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CA AND NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH MERGER OFF THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST DURING THE PAST 24
   HOURS HAS RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY STRONG CLOSED LOW CENTERED 120NM
   WSW OF LAX. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD THE
   SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY LATE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MAIN BELT OF
   THE WESTERLIES REMAINS WELL NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. AN
   EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
   PRAIRIES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS NRN
   ONTARIO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SWD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN...ND...AND NRN/CENTRAL MT WITH A
   LIGHT NLY WIND SHIFT.  
   
   A 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WWD INTO
   THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +14 TO +15C.
   REGION OF SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM WY WWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND NWD ACROSS
   INTERIOR WA/ORE. VALLEY/BASIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...RH MINIMUMS
   OF 10-20 PERCENT...AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN
   SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER...LACK OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS INFLUENCED PREDOMINANTLY BY LOCAL
   OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE
   SEVERITY OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA MTNS...WRN/NWRN
   NV...AND NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED DRY
   LIGHTNING/DRY MICROBURSTS...DRY FUEL CONDITIONS
   
   INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND NNWWD MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ADVECTION EAST OF UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. HEATING OF ELEVATED
   TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND ADJACENT AREAS
   OF NRN CA/WRN NV. CELLS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NNWWD...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO LOWER
   TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SUB-CLOUD RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER AND LESS
   FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. IN ADDITION TO DRY
   LIGHTNING THREAT...ISOLATED DRY MICROBURSTS NEAR CONVECTION WILL
   RESULT IN GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
   DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND
   INCREASING PW MAY ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO WET
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL NV DURING THE LATE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150646
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING - PORTIONS OF THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN AND FAR SRN ID/SERN ORE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
   UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW ACROSS
   THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
   NEWD INTO W-CENTRAL NV BY 17/00Z WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
   WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN U.S./SRN CANADA.
   AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN CONUS/FOUR CORNERS STATES. MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD IN ADVANCE OF WEAKENING UPPER LOW BRINGING
   A THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND MTNS OF
   FAR SRN ID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10-20
   PERCENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NWRN STATES AND
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT AND ERN WY. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE LIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
   CASCADES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR NRN UT...NRN NV...SERN
   ORE...AND SRN ID...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING...DRY FUEL
   CONDITIONS
   
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NRN GREAT BASIN AND
   SERN ORE/SRN ID. NAM-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...WITH MARGINAL CAPE VALUES OF
   100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE
   NEWD FROM DECAYING UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN NV. DRY LIGHTNING THREAT
   ALONG WITH DRY FUEL CONDITIONS SUGGEST NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE.
   LOCALIZED DRY MICROBURST THREAT WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG
   SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND CONVECTION.
   
   ...ERN SLOPES OF WA/ORE CASCADES...
   
   SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN ON DAY 2...IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY
   ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WA/NRN ORE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
   CASCADES INDICATED BY NAM MAY BRING A MARINE PUSH WITH LOCALLY
   MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
   MPH THROUGH MTN PASSES MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS GIVEN CONTINUED DRY TO VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS IN THE
   AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
   80S ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES TO THE LOW 90S IN THE
   COLUMBIA BASIN. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...FROM
   15-20 PERCENT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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