Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310742
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS N-S THROUGH THE
   CENTRAL DAKOTAS SWWD INTO E-CENTRAL CO WHERE FRONT IS SURGING
   RAPIDLY SWD. WRN EXTENTION OF COLD FRONT EXTENDS WWD TO NEAR THE
   CA/ORE BORDER...WHERE BOUNDARY IS QUASI-STATIONARY. WV IMAGERY
   REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY MOVING
   EWD. DURING THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD BEHIND
   THE COLD FRONT WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD
   INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN NM BY
   MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
   SWRN STATES...BRINGING HOT/DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED ON STRONG GRADIENT
   FLOW REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT.
   ALSO...CONTINUED HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THERMAL SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SRN CA NNWWD INTO THE SRN CASCADES.
   
   ...WRN DAKOTAS/FAR ERN MT...
   
   COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH
   INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL ESTABLISH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM
   THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 700MB. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE
   VERTICAL MIXING BENEATH 500MB JET MAX OF 50-60KT EXPECTED TO ROTATE
   OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WLY TO NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE
   EXPECTED...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING...
   HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE WRN
   DAKOTAS/ERN MT DURING THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
   FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS
   GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY MARGINALLY LOW
   DAYTIME RH VALUES...WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT. WINDS
   SHOULD DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.
   
   
   ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY/SRN CASCADES/NRN SIERRA MTNS...
   
   STRONG SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY IN NRN CA WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
   AS NWRN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD. UNTIL THEN...DOWNSLOPE NLY
   TO NELY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ADJACENT TO MTNS AND IN
   CANYONS/MTN PASSES. ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN LOCAL
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
   THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TEMPERATURES NEAR
   100F AND RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. LOCAL NATURE OF FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL AREA FOR THE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/31/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310808
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. WILL
   BECOME PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE
   UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES
   REGION THROUGH 02/12Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WHILE THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES
   REESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY NNWWD
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN OF NERN
   ORE/WA. THE LOWEST RH MINIMUMS AROUND THE CONUS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   THERMAL TROUGH...WITH READINGS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT BASIN AND
   INTERIOR CA OF 8-15 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOW
   ELEVATIONS OF 95-105F. DESPITE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...UP TO
   600MB IN SOME AREAS...WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP
   SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECLUDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/31/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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