Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160824
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   TWO SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CONUS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF CA INTO THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD INTO THE PAC NW.
   AHEAD OF THE SRN SYSTEM...INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH LOW RH
   READINGS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS
   OF THE INTERIOR WEST. AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM...INCREASING
   WIND FIELDS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...WITH NEAR
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN/ERN UT...NWRN CO AND FAR NRN
   AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
   30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS 10-15 PERCENT
   
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
   QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. PRONOUNCED MID
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE
   OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS THE
   SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE TO INCREASE THE SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS TO
   BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR
   CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NFDRS
   INFORMATION MOST OF NWRN NM...NERN AZ AND SWRN CO HAD LOW FIRE
   DANGERS AND THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
   IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVER NCENTRAL AZ...SRN/ERN UT AND NWRN
   CO...HIGH FIRE DANGERS WITH AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
   WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN NV...WRN UT...
   AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW WILL NOT MOVE
   SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH TO AID IN STRONG WINDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
   UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. THUS A SUFFICIENTLY LONG DURATION OF
   WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RH READINGS WILL
   NOT EXIST TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...NERN AZ/NWRN NM AND SWRN CO...
   ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NFDRS INFORMATION MOST OF NWRN NM...NERN AZ
   AND SWRN CO WILL HAVE LOW FIRE DANGERS AND THUS CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS DESPITE SUSTAINED
   WINDS OVER 20 MPH AND MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/16/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160826
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BELT
   OF MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE ALONG THE SRN PORTIONS OF
   THIS TROUGH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES
   SUPPORTING AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THIS
   REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...UPPER RIDGING WILL FLATTEN OVER THE
   CENTRAL CONUS...WHILE THE SFC LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES...
   SWLY WINDS FROM AT LEAST 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR OVER
   THE REGION ON DAY TWO. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW RH READINGS AROUND 15
   PERCENT WILL SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   ATTM...THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL WARMING AND LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE REGION. IF LATER FCSTS
   INDICATE LESS DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOME COOLER
   MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEPER LAPSE RATES THEN PORTIONS OF THIS
   AREA WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA.
   
   ...SRN/ERN GREAT BASIN...
   SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT OVER NRN NV...MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE
   AROUND 15 PERCENT. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND COLD MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MODERATE SWLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...INCREASED CLOUD
   COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 09/16/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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