Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180637
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER SWRN MT
   EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATE
   ENEWD BECOMING A POSITIVE TILT SYSTEM FROM WRN ND TO CENTRAL WY BY
   19/00Z. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
   OF NRN CA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW OFF CENTRAL
   CA BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE WILL
   REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION THIS
   PERIOD. 
   
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WSWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM INTERIOR SRN CA/SRN NV ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION. WINDS AT 500MB WILL RANGE FROM 30-40KT ACROSS SRN UT AND
   WRN/SRN CO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALSO
   JUXTAPOSED WITH 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ EXPECTED TO
   REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM NWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   MTNS INTO S-CENTRAL CO. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LOCALIZED FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   
   MAINTENENCE OF DRY WSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES OF 10-15
   PERCENT AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
   LOWER ELEVATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO
   YESTERDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND DEEPENS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS
   OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT GENERALLY 10-15
   MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN VALLEY/BASIN LOCATIONS. 
   
   FUEL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED TWO SMOKE PLUMES
   ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRE...ONE OVER DOLORES COUNTY IN SWRN CO AND
   THE OTHER OVER COCONINO COUNTY IN N-CENTRAL AZ. WITH MARGINAL WIND
   SPEEDS ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
   IMPROVE MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/18/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180636
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...NWRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
   ACROSS TX WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
   AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
   FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS
   COMPARED TO THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. EVOLUTION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
   ALSO CONTINUE WARMING TREND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CA NEWD ACROSS THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   ...CENTRAL/WRN MT AND WY...
   
   WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB WINDS OF 25-30KT ACROSS
   MUCH OF WY AND 35-50KT ACROSS MT. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD
   YIELD AREAS OF 15-20 MPH SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY NATURE OF DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW REGIME COMBINED
   WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EAST OF CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS AND
   WRN/SWRN MT MTNS WILL YIELD LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE VALLEY/BASINS OF WY
   SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER
   TEMPERATURES IN MT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RH MINIMUMS OF 20-30 PERCENT
   ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
   APPEAR MARGINALLY CRITICAL AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/18/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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