Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180637
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER SWRN MT
EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND ACCELERATE
ENEWD BECOMING A POSITIVE TILT SYSTEM FROM WRN ND TO CENTRAL WY BY
19/00Z. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. UPSTREAM TROUGH OFF
OF NRN CA/ORE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW OFF CENTRAL
CA BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION THIS
PERIOD.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM INTERIOR SRN CA/SRN NV ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. WINDS AT 500MB WILL RANGE FROM 30-40KT ACROSS SRN UT AND
WRN/SRN CO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS AREA IS ALSO
JUXTAPOSED WITH 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+14 TO +15C/ EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM NWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS INTO S-CENTRAL CO. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS LOCALIZED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
MAINTENENCE OF DRY WSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES OF 10-15
PERCENT AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND DEEPENS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT GENERALLY 10-15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN VALLEY/BASIN LOCATIONS.
FUEL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY SATURDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED TWO SMOKE PLUMES
ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRE...ONE OVER DOLORES COUNTY IN SWRN CO AND
THE OTHER OVER COCONINO COUNTY IN N-CENTRAL AZ. WITH MARGINAL WIND
SPEEDS ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE MARKEDLY AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.
..BANACOS.. 09/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 180636
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...NWRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS TX WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS
COMPARED TO THE PAST 2-3 DAYS. EVOLUTION OF UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALSO CONTINUE WARMING TREND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN CA NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT BASIN AND MUCH OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...CENTRAL/WRN MT AND WY...
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB WINDS OF 25-30KT ACROSS
MUCH OF WY AND 35-50KT ACROSS MT. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD
YIELD AREAS OF 15-20 MPH SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY NATURE OF DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW REGIME COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT EAST OF CENTRAL WY MOUNTAINS AND
WRN/SWRN MT MTNS WILL YIELD LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE VALLEY/BASINS OF WY
SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN MT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO RH MINIMUMS OF 20-30 PERCENT
ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT. CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
APPEAR MARGINALLY CRITICAL AND AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
..BANACOS.. 09/18/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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