Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190732
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL - PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING E-W ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WILL EXPAND
   NWWD THIS PERIOD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
   LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS COMPARED TO THE
   PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS. ELSEWHERE...GOES-10 WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER
   TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY SWD OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS
   SYSTEM WILL INCREASE DRY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN CENTRAL CA LATER
   TODAY. INCREASING WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED FIRE
   WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT AND WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL CA COASTAL MTNS AND SAN
   JOAQUIN VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS / DRY FUELS
   
   NWD ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF UPPER LOW OFF THE
   CENTRAL CA COAST WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES / AROUND
   500 J/KG / BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND ADJACENT
   CENTRAL VALLEYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS BASED ON 19/00Z NAM AND 18/21Z
   NAM-KF INDICATE PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH DEEP AND DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MID TO
   UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW REGION NE OF UPPER LOW
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCALLY HIGHER
   TERRAIN /I.E. COASTAL MTNS/ AREAS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS
   PRESENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY RESULT IN LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
   BECOMING WET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN AND COOL AFTER SUNSET.
   HOWEVER...INITIAL ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A DRY
   LIGHTNING THREAT.
   
   ...MT/WY...
   
   WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL
   DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. / CANADIAN BORDER BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING RESULTING IN WLY SURFACE WINDS
   OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND 10-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WY
   DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
   15-20 PERCENT ACROSS WY AND 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS MT...RESULTING IN
   MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZES AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190732
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST TODAY WILL ACCELERATE EWD TUESDAY
   REACHING THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY
   STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY NNEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH 500MB WINDS OF
   25-35 KTS. A MODEST CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SWLY SURFACE WINDS
   SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
   RIDGE IS ALSO PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   ON TUESDAY OWING TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE/INSOLATIONAL
   HEATING.
   
   STRONG ZONAL FLOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH
   LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE
   PEAK HEATING HOURS TUESDAY.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS...
   
   EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW AND DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
   WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA
   EWD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS. LOW-LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
   FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...AND MAY RESULT IN A FEW
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NRN FRINGE OF TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS MAY ALSO INCLUDE DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE ELEVATED
   TERRAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
   DOWNWIND OF UPPER LOW CENTER.
   
   MAGNITUDE OF DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT DEPENDS CRITICALLY UPON
   MAGNITUDE OF NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
   EWD OF UPPER LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IF A FOCUSED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM THREAT BECOMES LIKELY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/19/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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