Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030719
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...MODERATE SWLY WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   LATE IN THE PERIOD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WEAK OFFSHORE
   WIND EVENT WILL START LATE IN THE PERIOD /AFTER 00Z/. ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS THE NATION...SLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE
   BETWEEN SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NV...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
   SRN/ERN UT AND NWRN AZ.......
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH...GUSTS UP TO 40
   MPH. MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   WAS DEEPENING OVER ERN NV. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEWD
   INTO WY DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF A LEAD UPPER TROUGH. STRONG MIXING
   AS EVIDENCE BY GUSTY WINDS OBSERVED AT DRA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
   TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AT
   SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS SUPPORT A QUICK WARMUP OVER THE REGION LATER
   THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIN RH READINGS WILL DROP
   TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY 19Z...LASTING THROUGH
   00Z. A STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
   THE PERIOD AND COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
   SUPPORT MODERATE SWLY WINDS AT THE SFC FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
   TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
   SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST BELOW
   6000 FT.
   
   ...MTNS/CANYONS OF SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES CNTYS...
   
   DISAGREEMENTS EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS REGARDING HOW FAR
   SOUTH THE SECONDARY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO NRN CA/WRN
   GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL THE MID
   LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FCST 100 MILES FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN BY 04/12Z. ANALYSIS OF EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   THAT THE NAM APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE UPPER FEATURES OVER THE SRN
   GULF OF ALASKA BEST. THUS...THIS FCST WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM
   SOLUTION. GIVEN A FARTHER NORTH UPPER TROUGH LOCATION FORECAST...TWO
   IMPORTANT RESULTS WILL OCCUR. 1) THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
   NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH LATE IN DAY ONE/DAY TWO THROUGH THE GREAT
   BASIN. 2) THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEREFORE NOT BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
   TO WARRANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON DAY ONE OVER THE MTNS OF
   SRN CA. THIS BEING SAID...OFFSHORE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BEGIN
   OVER THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH FALLING RH VALUES. SUSTAINED NNELY
   WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
   TOWARDS 12Z...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND IN THE WRN
   MOST MTNS OF THE REGION /SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA CNTYS/.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030721
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 2. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
   LEADING TO AN INCREASE/DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SRN CA
   MTNS/COASTAL VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD /AFTER 00Z/. FARTHER EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD
   THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING OF THE
   UPPER TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
   MODERATE SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH MIN
   RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
   MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
   
   ...MTNS/VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
   DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE FCST MODELS THAT ARE PRESENT ON DAY ONE
   NATURALLY EXTEND INTO DAY TWO. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN PLACEMENTS
   OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...THE MOST NOTICEABLE SENSIBLE DIFFERENCE
   IS THE STRENGTH AND SWD PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS IS
   ABOUT 4 MB HIGHER THAN THE NAM MODEL BY 05/12Z. IN ADDITION THE
   RESULTANT OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ABOUT 6 MB HIGHER ON THE GFS
   BETWEEN SRN NV AND THE SRN CA COAST THAN THE NAM SOLUTION.
   ATTM...SIMILAR TO THE DAY ONE REASONING...THE NAM SOLUTION IS
   PREFERRED AND SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
   35 MPH BELOW CANYONS AND THROUGH PASSES ARE PRESENTLY EXPECTED AFTER
   00Z. IF LATER FCSTS ARE INDICATIVE THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
   CORRECT THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED...THEN GIVEN EXPECTED MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT AND POOR RH RECOVERIES...A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT WOULD EXIST AS SUSTAINED WINDS WOULD BE AT LEAST 10
   MPH STRONGER. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE
   WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY TEND TO DECREASE THE
   STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS...OVER THE MTNS OF
   SANTA BARBARA/VENTURA CNTYS AFTER 06Z.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SWLY SFC WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   MIN RH READINGS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND 15 PERCENT AS WARM
   TEMPERATURES/DRY LOW LEVELS EXIST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. SIMILAR
   TO THE REASONING IN THE SRN CA PARAGRAPH...FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION OF
   THE NAM WOULD TAKE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SFC
   FRONT. HOWEVER...IF LATER FCSTS INDICATE THAT INDEED THE MID LEVEL
   WIND SPEED MAX OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/03/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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