Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040703
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNSEASONABLE STRONG AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED NEAR NRN CA/SRN ORE
   EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
   THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 500MB SPEED MAX OF 75-85KT AROUND THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN UT INTO
   WRN/SWRN CO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
   FRONTAL ZONE...NOW LOCATED FROM SRN NV ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT INTO
   CENTRAL CO...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
   THIS EVENING. PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN RESIDUAL 700MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +12 TO +13C
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL AZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL NM INTO SRN
   CO.
   
   MEANWHILE...LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN
   WILL ESTABLISH OFFSHORE FLOW - ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   - ACROSS SRN CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   RH VALUES IN MTN PASSES AND CANYONS IN VICINITY OF THE SRN CA
   COASTAL RANGES.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN UT...NERN/N-CENTRAL
   AZ...WRN/SWRN CO...AND NWRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / AREAS OF DRY FUELS
   
   DEEP WSWLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MIXING. WLY/SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-30 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS AT
   RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. AN ACTIVE SMOKE PLUME WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY MONDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY 15 SSE FLG...SUGGESTING
   FUEL CONDITIONS ARE DRY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 04/18Z AND 05/03Z. RH VALUES WILL BE
   SIMILAR TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS AND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE
   MOGOLLON RIM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE
   INTERIOR SRN CA VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING
   ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
   SWD ALONG THE CA COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT AS THE
   COLD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
   TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE
   SWRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE COASTAL RANGES SURROUNDING THE LA BASIN.
   THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN 700MB TEMPERATURE FIELD...WHICH BECOMES
   ENHANCED TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
   FROM LAX TO SRN SIERRA MTNS REACHES 8MB IN GFS AND 10MB IN NAM RUN
   FROM 04/00Z VALID 05/12Z. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NELY
   WINDS THROUGH MTN PASSES/CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES...WITH
   GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
   DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN
   POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IN THESE AREAS...BELOW 25 PERCENT IN
   FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. RECENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS EVOLVING
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REESTABLISH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATTERN WILL
   LIKEWISE ESTABLISH LOWER RH VALUES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
   THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING HOURS TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
   5-10F WARMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S IN THE COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/04/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040700
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
   MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   LIFTING ENEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AT 05/12Z WILL
   MOVE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 06/00Z...WITH TRAILING COLD
   FRONT SWEEPING SWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
   AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS ENEWD TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE
   AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
   
   
   IN THE WEST...LINGERING 700-500MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALONG
   THE WEST COAST INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
   AND LOW RH VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
   OF THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY UNTIL SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN THE
   WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW BY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY / LOW RH
   VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED IN NUMERICAL MODELS
   AROUND 05/12Z SUGGESTS AREAS OF LOCALIZED NELY 30-40MPH WINDS WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN MTN PASSES/CANYONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
   THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
   THE SRN GREAT BASIN AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT...WITH SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE CA COAST GRADUALLY
   DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS SUGGESTS THREAT OF
   STRONG WINDS/LOW RH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  THUS...CRITICAL THREAT IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION
   FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
   LOCALIZED RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT AND NELY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH IN
   THE COASTAL RANGE.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/04/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home