Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 040703
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED NEAR NRN CA/SRN ORE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED 500MB SPEED MAX OF 75-85KT AROUND THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SRN UT INTO
WRN/SWRN CO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE...NOW LOCATED FROM SRN NV ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT INTO
CENTRAL CO...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN RESIDUAL 700MB THERMAL RIDGE OF +12 TO +13C
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL AZ NEWD INTO N-CENTRAL NM INTO SRN
CO.
MEANWHILE...LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN
WILL ESTABLISH OFFSHORE FLOW - ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
- ACROSS SRN CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RH VALUES IN MTN PASSES AND CANYONS IN VICINITY OF THE SRN CA
COASTAL RANGES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN UT...NERN/N-CENTRAL
AZ...WRN/SWRN CO...AND NWRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / AREAS OF DRY FUELS
DEEP WSWLY VERTICAL WIND PROFILES COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNWARD MIXING. WLY/SWLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-30 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS AT
RIDGETOP LOCATIONS. AN ACTIVE SMOKE PLUME WAS NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY MONDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY 15 SSE FLG...SUGGESTING
FUEL CONDITIONS ARE DRY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 04/18Z AND 05/03Z. RH VALUES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 15-20 PERCENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE
MOGOLLON RIM.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS / VERY LOW RH
VALUES / DRY FUELS
GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE
INTERIOR SRN CA VALLEYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGE AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING
SWD ALONG THE CA COAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT AS THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE
SWRN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE COASTAL RANGES SURROUNDING THE LA BASIN.
THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN 700MB TEMPERATURE FIELD...WHICH BECOMES
ENHANCED TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM LAX TO SRN SIERRA MTNS REACHES 8MB IN GFS AND 10MB IN NAM RUN
FROM 04/00Z VALID 05/12Z. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY STRONG NELY
WINDS THROUGH MTN PASSES/CANYONS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES...WITH
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF FLOW AND ADIABATIC WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN
POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IN THESE AREAS...BELOW 25 PERCENT IN
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. RECENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS EVOLVING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REESTABLISH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATTERN WILL
LIKEWISE ESTABLISH LOWER RH VALUES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
5-10F WARMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S IN THE COASTAL AREAS.
..BANACOS.. 10/04/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 040700
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING ENEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AT 05/12Z WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 06/00Z...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING SWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ENEWD TOWARD THE MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM TX NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
IN THE WEST...LINGERING 700-500MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALONG
THE WEST COAST INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RH VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY UNTIL SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN THE
WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW BY AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY / LOW RH
VALUES / DRY FUELS
STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAXIMIZED IN NUMERICAL MODELS
AROUND 05/12Z SUGGESTS AREAS OF LOCALIZED NELY 30-40MPH WINDS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN MTN PASSES/CANYONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
THE SRN GREAT BASIN AREA GRADUALLY WEAKENS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE CA COAST GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS SUGGESTS THREAT OF
STRONG WINDS/LOW RH WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...CRITICAL THREAT IS BASICALLY A CONTINUATION
FROM THE DAY 1 PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALIZED RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT AND NELY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH IN
THE COASTAL RANGE.
..BANACOS.. 10/04/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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