Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050720
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS PERIOD. EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ERN WY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
   CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL-DEFINED FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
   SWWD INTO WRN KS/SERN CO AND WWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
   FAR SRN GREAT BASIN. PRESENCE OF COLD AIR AND TROUGH ALOFT HAS
   RESULTED IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
   THE WRN GREAT BASIN AND A RESIDUAL INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE SRN CA
   COAST. THIS GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THE START
   OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...05/12Z...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
   DAY. PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AND VERY LOW RH VALUES
   ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGE AND ADJACENT MTN
   PASSES/CANYONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA WINDS / VERY LOW RH
   VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   INCREASE IN NELY SURFACE WINDS TO 40+MPH NOTED IN 06Z RAWS DATA NEAR
   SRN CA COASTAL RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM LAS-LAX. CURRENT RH VALUES
   RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT AT SITES WITH HIGHER WIND
   SPEEDS...GENERALLY IN AND BELOW MTN PASSES. ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL
   PEAK IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE IN FAVORABLE PASSES/CANYONS DURING THE
   12-15Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING
   OVER INTERIOR SRN CA/SRN GREAT BASIN LESSENS SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM 05/00Z NAM
   AND GFS. DESPITE DIMINISHING WIND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ABOVE AVERAGE
   TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW OF GENERALLY 15-25 MPH WILL
   MAINTAIN SOME FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
   HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE L.A. BASIN AREA WILL LIKELY REACH
   THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF GUSTS THROUGH
   MOUNTAIN PASSES/CANYONS IS LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
   THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT LESS
   INTENSE OWING TO MODERATION OF INLAND AIR MASS...WINDS SHOULD BE
   SLIGHTLY LESS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NELY AT 35-45 MPH.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/05/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050720
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2005
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING FROM WY/MT INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AN
   UPSTREAM...MOBILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING
   MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS 5-10F WARMER THAN THOSE
   ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN SRN CA WILL GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH WITH EXPECTED CHANGE IN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   
   LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REMAIN LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
   THURSDAY...PRIMARILY IN FAVORED MTN PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
   COASTAL RANGE. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY STRONG
   AROUND 06/12Z...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS
   THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. PATTERN RAPIDLY CHANGES BY AFTERNOON AS
   INVERTED SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY NNWWD THROUGH INTERIOR SRN CA TO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. PRESENT
   INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SHORT PERIOD OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTY NELY WINDS/LOW RH
   VALUES...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   PERIOD. EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF THREAT DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS
   OF THE PERIOD WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ISSUANCE AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/05/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home