Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060623
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
   MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
   MORNING WILL ACCELERATE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
   AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
   SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM PARENT CYCLONE OVER
   UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
   WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD AND EWD THIS PERIOD BRINGING MUCH COLDER
   CONDITIONS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH TX. A BROAD AREA OF
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT
   CONTINUES IN CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS
   MORNING. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE CA COAST HAS
   RESULTED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT
   ...WHICH IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND
   ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN CA...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
   AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN NELY WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WITH VERY LOW
   RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
   
   MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY
   STRONG AND GUSTY NELY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN MTN PASSES/CANYONS IN
   THE COASTAL RANGES. VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...COMBINED WITH
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND VERY
   POOR RH RECOVERY. IN ADDITION...ANTECEDENT FUEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
   DRY.
   
   CONTINUATION OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY IN EXCESS
   OF 40 MPH...WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
   FOR A PERIOD ENCOMPASSING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
   AFTERNOON /12-20Z/. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   TODAY WILL WEAKEN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT
   ACROSS SRN CA RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE...WEAK
   OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
   AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE L.A.
   BASIN. RH VALUES LOCALLY IN THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS OF
   STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW UNTIL SUNSET...WITH IMPROVED
   NIGHTTIME RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/06/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060622
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
   THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION WILL RESULT IN MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SRN
   ROCKIES REGION. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ENEWD EXPANSION OF A
   MODERATE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+12C/ FROM SRN CA AND AZ INTO NM AND
   CO. DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY NNWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA WILL RESULT IN WINDS
   BECOMING LIGHT AND ONSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES...GENERALLY 20 PERCENT OR
   LESS...WILL BE CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   AREA...THE GREAT BASIN...AND INTERIOR CENTRAL/SRN CA. WEAK SEA-LEVEL
   PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT
   WINDS...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/06/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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