Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 060623
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST BY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ACCELERATE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM PARENT CYCLONE OVER
UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD AND EWD THIS PERIOD BRINGING MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH TX. A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT
CONTINUES IN CONTROL AS FAR WEST AS THE SWRN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG MUCH OF THE CA COAST HAS
RESULTED IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT
...WHICH IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN CA...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY
AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN NELY WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING WITH VERY LOW
RH VALUES / DRY FUELS
MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NELY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH IN MTN PASSES/CANYONS IN
THE COASTAL RANGES. VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND VERY
POOR RH RECOVERY. IN ADDITION...ANTECEDENT FUEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
DRY.
CONTINUATION OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH WIND GUSTS LOCALLY IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH...WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA
FOR A PERIOD ENCOMPASSING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON /12-20Z/. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WILL WEAKEN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SRN CA RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE...WEAK
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S IN THE L.A.
BASIN. RH VALUES LOCALLY IN THE 8-15 PERCENT RANGE IN AREAS OF
STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW UNTIL SUNSET...WITH IMPROVED
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
..BANACOS.. 10/06/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS22 KWNS 060622
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2005
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER
THREATS ARE ANTICIPATED. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL RESULT IN MODERATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES REGION. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ENEWD EXPANSION OF A
MODERATE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE /+12C/ FROM SRN CA AND AZ INTO NM AND
CO. DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY NNWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OF CA WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND ONSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES...GENERALLY 20 PERCENT OR
LESS...WILL BE CONFINED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...THE GREAT BASIN...AND INTERIOR CENTRAL/SRN CA. WEAK SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT
WINDS...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.
..BANACOS.. 10/06/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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