Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 070756
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SANTA ANA EVENT HAS ENDED ACROSS SRN CA...AS SURFACE RIDGE HAS
PROGRESSED EWD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE LAST 12-24
HOURS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM NWRN ONTARIO
AND THE ERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ANTICYCLONE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL U.S.
UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CONTINUED MODERATION OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC DIGS AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM 500MB RIDGING AND ENEWD
EXPANSION OF 700MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS AZ/NM/CO WILL YIELD WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN
AND INTERIOR CENTRAL/SRN CA. MINIMUM RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE WARMEST AREAS...COVERING
THE WRN GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL/WRN AZ...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR CA
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A WEAK SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY NNWWD INTO THE WRN GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
FIELD. COASTAL SRN CA SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE WITH
RH VALUES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
SW...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT /AT OR BELOW 15 MPH/ GIVEN WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND FLAT SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT WIND WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS
STEMMING FROM MODERATELY LOW RH AND DRY ANTECEDENT FUEL CONDITIONS
IN THE SWRN CONUS REGION THIS PERIOD.
..BANACOS.. 10/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 070755
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE INTERIOR SWRN U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
IS EXPECTED BASED ON LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE 07/00Z NAM IS
SOMEWHAT MORE INTENSE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DEPICTING
A 75-80KT 500MB JET ON UPWIND SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ROTATING INTO
TROUGH BASE AROUND 09/00Z. AT LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL ZONE WILL
INTENSIFY FROM NE-SW FROM CENTRAL WY SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL UT INTO
S-CENTRAL NV. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE DRY SWLY TRAJECTORIES AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT
TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF WINDY CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - INTERIOR SRN CA...CENTRAL/WRN
AZ...SRN NV...AND FAR SWRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / AREAS OF DRY
FUELS
SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...REACHING 15-30 MPH ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREA DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEEPEN TO 7-10 KFT SOUTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN VALLEY/BASIN
AREAS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE. LOW-LEVEL
STABILIZATION WILL LESSEN FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN MOST AREAS AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER...MAINTENANCE OF MODERATE WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY AND SOME CONTINUED
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BANACOS.. 10/07/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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