Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150433
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SRN GREAT BASIN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MODERATE SWLY WINDS
   COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS WILL
   GENERATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN.
   IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MODERATE NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
   MUCH OF NRN CA/NRN NV. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES
   WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW AND RH READINGS WELL ABOVE 20
   PERCENT...THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   OVER THIS AREA. FURTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
   DOMINANT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE SERN STATES. LOW RH
   READINGS /20-30 PERCENT/ WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE OH/MS
   VALLEYS...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 30-40 PERCENT OVER THE SERN
   STATES AND THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
   UNFAVORABLE AMBIENT FUEL CONDITIONS AND/OR LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
   ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN NV....SERN CA...SWRN UT AND
   NWRN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUSTAINED
   WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH
   
   AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ALONG THE PAC NW
   COAST..SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY OVER THE
   NWRN GREAT BASIN...NERN CA. THESE MODERATE SFC WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
   ON DAY ONE OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ABOVE
   NORMAL TEMPERATURES /MID-UPPER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS/ COMBINED
   WITH MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WINDS WILL
   SHIFT TO A NWLY DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
   FEW HRS OF NEAR CRITICAL RH READINGS OVER SRN NV BEHIND THE COLD
   FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...NRN CA...
   NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG
   N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
   CENTRAL VALLEY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SRN ORE.
   SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN LOWER
   ELEVATIONS AND REMAIN MODERATE IN THE HILLS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S
   DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH THE
   DEWPTS LOWER INTO THE 20S...MIN TEMPERATURES FALL TO BETWEEN 55-60 F
   IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY/AND COASTAL RANGE. THUS A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED EVEN LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST...NWLY WINDS WILL
   USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH. THUS DESPITE MIN RH READINGS FROM 30-35
   PERCENT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150440
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2005
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN CA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING SWD THROUGH
   THE DESERT SW. A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FCST TO REMAIN
   BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ORE/NRN NV AND LOW PRESSURE OFF
   THE CA COAST. THUS NNELY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER NRN CA...AND
   COMBINED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS AND LOWERING RH
   READINGS...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN CA.
   FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SRN CA...OFFSHORE WINDS
   ARE FCST TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM FOR
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
    ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES.
   VERY LOW RH READINGS WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER THIS REGION INTO THE
   MID ATLANTIC...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH MIN RH
   READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT
   
   AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CLOSED OVER NWRN MX/FAR LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY...A DEEP /SFC-10 KFT AGL/ ENELY WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP OVER
   NRN AND CENTRAL CA. THE PREEXISTING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
   BETWEEN THE NWRN GREAT BASIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SFC TROUGH
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL
   OFFSHORE WIND FIELDS OVER NRN CA. NNELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
   AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NRN
   SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BAY AREA DURING THE
   DAYTIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY/LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE BAY AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS
   SHOULD REMAIN FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH RH
   READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL RANGE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
   NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ELY OVER
   CENTRAL/PORTIONS OF SRN CA DURING THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
   STRONGER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH IN NRN
   CA...A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ELY LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELD COMBINED
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-25 MPH
   ENELY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST WINDS
   SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER /CENTERED AROUND 1500
   FT/...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
   MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT. IF LATER FCSTS INDICATE A
   STRONGER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE REGION THAN
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THAN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA WOULD
   BE NEEDED.
   
   ...SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC...
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH
   THE PERIOD. RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-15 PERCENT LOWER THAN
   ON DAY ONE...WITH AFTERNOON RH READINGS FROM 25-30 PERCENT OVER MUCH
   OF THE REGION. DESPITE THESE LOW RH READINGS...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
   FCST TO AVERAGE AOB 10 MPH PRECLUDING A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 10/15/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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