Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230759
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
   ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
   NWD INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD IN RESPONSE TO A
   DIGGING TROUGH WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A SRN STREAM UPPER
   TROUGH APPROACHING THE CA COAST BY 24/12Z. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW
   OVER NWRN AZ WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE LIGHT
   TODAY PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
   
   TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE WITH A
   LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
   MORNING. STRONGER/PRIMARY MID-TROPOSPHERIC COLD CORE OVER IA WILL
   ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ALSO DIGGING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LEADING SURGE
   OF COOLER AIR IS MARKED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN FL
   PENINSULA INTO THE NRN/WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
   IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE FRONT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK INTO WRN TX
   WILL SURGE RAPIDLY SWD THROUGH TX/LA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SWD FROM THE
   CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS STATES. WINDY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
   IN MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
   REGION EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   NLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
   FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE IN TX/OK AND AR/LA TODAY. SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRY
   AIR ADVECTION INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
   FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY WITH PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OF 4-5 INCHES
   SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST ALONG THE DFW-OKC CORRIDOR. PORTIONS OF AR HAVE
   NOT OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
   
   HOWEVER...THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS IN REGARD TO ANY
   SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
   HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS OK/AR AND THE 60S ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX
   AND NRN LA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
   35-45 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH IMPROVING
   RH VALUES AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MARGINAL RH
   CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/23/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230758
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FROM
   THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH TX. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
   BUILDING SWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX LATE ON DAY 1...MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN PLAINS AREA AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING
   MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODERATION IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS WEAK LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT BEGINS. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT ARE
   LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF OK/TX...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF 5-10 MPH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER IMPACT.
   
   SEASONABLE TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
   REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NWD TO CENTRAL MT.
   BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO
   CENTRAL CA BY 25/12Z...WITH 50-60KT 500MB JET MOVING ACROSS SRN CA.
   TIMING OF SYSTEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD NOT HAVE AN
   APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON SURFACE WIND/FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SRN CA. CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/23/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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