Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 240629
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD. LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
25/12Z. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL CA
BY THIS EVENING.
...SRN AL...SWRN GA...AND THE CENTRAL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...
DESPITE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE WILMA ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING...TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SEPARATED BY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NERN GULF
COAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 30S EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN AL/MS BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST REGION
BY AFTERNOON...OWING TO STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN WILMA AND CENTRAL PLAINS SFC RIDGE...AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE HEATING. SUSTAINED NLY TO NWLY
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH RH VALUES
BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO AROUND SUNSET. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THIS WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AREA...HOWEVER...DRY FUEL CONDITIONS MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
AND RH VALUES RECOVER AFTER SUNSET.
..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 240628
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD AND TRANSITIONING HURRICANE WILMA TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM SE OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN CONUS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS SWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NC TO THE LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS SC...GA...AND NRN FL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE LOWEST IN
CAROLINA PIEDMONT AREA...WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WILL
MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS...AND SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NM TO
MT/SASKATCHEWAN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WLY 500MB JET
OF 50-60KT ON SRN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS FROM
CURRENT NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...OWING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
DEPTHS. THOUGH BASIN/VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S...MARGINAL DAYTIME RH VALUES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND
WLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERITY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA/AZ.
..BANACOS.. 10/24/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home