Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020839
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AS A STRONG
   UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
   THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL JET
   OVER THE PLAINS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS COMBINED
   WITH THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT RH READINGS IN THESE
   REGIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. FURTHER EAST...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
   SERN STATES...PROVIDING FOR LOW RH READINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN
   OK AND SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
   30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT...
   
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
   LEE TROUGH. THE SENSIBLE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY ARE
   FORECAST TO OCCUR WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVERLAYS THE
   STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO
   SWRN/SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING ANTICIPATED OVER THIS
   REGION...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS
   OVER 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH READINGS REACHING
   THE LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS WRN OK
   INTO SWRN KS.
   
   ...WRN...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...
   MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S. 
   AREA WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL
   JET AXIS AND THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 10-15
   MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES OVER 20 MPH. 
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
   OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE/DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
   THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
   SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AND FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS TEMPERATURES
   GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MIN RH READINGS ABOVE
   15 PERCENT.
   
   ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
   MIN RH READINGS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT UNDER INFLUENCE
   OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. 
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE NEB/SD AND IA/SRN MN TODAY
   UNDER UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15-20
   MPH OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS TO BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER ERN NEB/IA AND
   SRN MN. MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE
   WRN HIGH PLAINS AND BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER THE
   AREA. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH READINGS IN THE EAST AND WINDS IN
   THE WEST WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 020952
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
   PLAINS STATES DURING DAY TWO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CA/ORE
   COAST. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
   WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING OF
   THE LEE CYCLONE IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
   OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN THIS LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER THE SERN STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY WINDS OVER
   MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
   OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS AND
   RECENT-LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT/DORMANT VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SRN PLAINS
   REGION.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...NRN/WRN
   TX...MOST OF OK/NWRN AR...SRN/ERN KS AND WRN MO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS
   
   LITTLE DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FCST MODELS ON THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
   ROCKIES ON DAY TWO. AS A RESULT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...A
   STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER ERN
   CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB REGION. AS THE LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...SO WILL
   THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER SRN PLAINS AND OZARK MTNS
   REGION. A COMPARISON BETWEEN DAY ONE AND DAY TWO SUGGESTS AN
   ADDITIONAL 2-4 MB OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ON DAY TWO OVER MOST OF NRN
   TX...OK/MO AND WRN AR. IN MOST OF THIS REGION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
   JET WILL ALSO EXIST. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING OF THE ASSOCIATED
   40-50 KT WIND MAX IN THE 1 KM LAYER...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM
   20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
   GRADIENT. VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1 KM LAYER /+20-22 C AT 850 MB/ WILL
   SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE LOWER TO MID
   80S/ OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS OVER FORECASTING
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF OK/KS...AND
   EXPECT SURFACE DEWPTS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE
   REGION...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST OVER
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN TX AND ERN NM...DESPITE A  SLIGHTLY
   WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
   STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM
   20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN RH
   READINGS WILL BE MARGINALLY CRITICAL /15-20 PERCENT/ DUE TO
   TEMPERATURES NOT REALIZING THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AS MID-HIGH
   CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BUT THE DEGREE OF STRONG WINDS COMBINED
   WITH DORMANT VEGETATION DUE TO RECENT FALL FREEZES WILL SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ....SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL
   OCCUR AS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BENEATH STRONG MID
   LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD
   COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP
   TEMPERATURES TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONSEQUENTLY MIN RH
   READINGS APPEAR TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
   MID MS VALLEY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS
   OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN READINGS FURTHER
   SW /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35
   PERCENT. THUS THIS AREA WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   UNDER PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH READINGS
   FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE REGION.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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