Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020839
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH/LOW LEVEL JET
OVER THE PLAINS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH READINGS COMBINED
WITH THE WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT RH READINGS IN THESE
REGIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. FURTHER EAST...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SERN STATES...PROVIDING FOR LOW RH READINGS AND LIGHT WINDS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - MOST OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN
OK AND SWRN KS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
LEE TROUGH. THE SENSIBLE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVERLAYS THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO
SWRN/SCENTRAL KS. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING ANTICIPATED OVER THIS
REGION...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM 20-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...WARMING LOW LEVELS WITH READINGS REACHING
THE LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
READINGS FROM 15-20 PERCENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS WRN OK
INTO SWRN KS.
...WRN...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...
MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS IN THE 20S/30S.
AREA WILL RESIDE OUTSIDE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND THUS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS AT TIMES OVER 20 MPH.
...SRN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS...
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
OCCUR OVER THE REGION TODAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE/DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. OVERALL AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION AND FULL MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MIN RH READINGS ABOVE
15 PERCENT.
...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
MIN RH READINGS TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT UNDER INFLUENCE
OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH PRECLUDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE NEB/SD AND IA/SRN MN TODAY
UNDER UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15-20
MPH OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS TO BETWEEN 20-30 MPH OVER ERN NEB/IA AND
SRN MN. MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS AND BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT OVER THE REMAINDER THE
AREA. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RH READINGS IN THE EAST AND WINDS IN
THE WEST WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 020952
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST WED NOV 02 2005
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES DURING DAY TWO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARDS THE CA/ORE
COAST. THE OVERALL RESULT WILL BE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING OF
THE LEE CYCLONE IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG SSWLY WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES/LOW RH READINGS AND
RECENT-LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICIT/DORMANT VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SRN PLAINS
REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF ERN NM...NRN/WRN
TX...MOST OF OK/NWRN AR...SRN/ERN KS AND WRN MO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 15-25 PERCENT...DROUGHT
CONDITIONS
LITTLE DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS FCST MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES ON DAY TWO. AS A RESULT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE...A
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER ERN
CO/NWRN KS/SWRN NEB REGION. AS THE LEE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES...SO WILL
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOWER SRN PLAINS AND OZARK MTNS
REGION. A COMPARISON BETWEEN DAY ONE AND DAY TWO SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 MB OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ON DAY TWO OVER MOST OF NRN
TX...OK/MO AND WRN AR. IN MOST OF THIS REGION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO EXIST. DESPITE LACK OF FULL MIXING OF THE ASSOCIATED
40-50 KT WIND MAX IN THE 1 KM LAYER...SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM
20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. VERY WARM AIR IN THE 1 KM LAYER /+20-22 C AT 850 MB/ WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S/ OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS OVER FORECASTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF OK/KS...AND
EXPECT SURFACE DEWPTS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT. FURTHER WEST OVER
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN TX AND ERN NM...DESPITE A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIN RH
READINGS WILL BE MARGINALLY CRITICAL /15-20 PERCENT/ DUE TO
TEMPERATURES NOT REALIZING THE FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. BUT THE DEGREE OF STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH DORMANT VEGETATION DUE TO RECENT FALL FREEZES WILL SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
....SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE...
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL
OCCUR AS STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BENEATH STRONG MID
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. PRESENCE OF LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID-HIGH CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TEND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONSEQUENTLY MIN RH
READINGS APPEAR TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT PRECLUDING A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...MID MS VALLEY...
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE
MID MS VALLEY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL JET EXISTS
OVER THE REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN READINGS FURTHER
SW /HIGHS IN THE 70S/ WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS FROM 25-35
PERCENT. THUS THIS AREA WILL BE JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
UNDER PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MIN RH READINGS
FROM 25-35 PERCENT WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE REGION.
..CROSBIE.. 11/02/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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